Purdue's standout freshman Jaden Ivey opting into the 2021 draft? I know what you are thinking. I must be crazy and/or getting ahead of myself. After all, on the surface, the 6'4 guard is averaging a mere 10.5ppg this season, connecting on a paltry 24.7% of his 4 three point attempts per game. These numbers do not scream NBA draft prospect by any stretch of the imagination. When you dig a little deeper, however, it becomes clear that Ivey will be an NBA draft prospect the second he opts in.
In terms of his background, Jaden grew up in South Bend, Indiana. His mother is the Notre Dame women's basketball coach, following her time spent in the WNBA. So Jaden has basketball in his family. In high school, he played for La Lumiere Prep - one of the best programs in the country - and stood out, shooting 40% from 3 and 43.1% on the Nike EYBL circuit in 2018.
Flash forward to today: Ivey has emerged as the perfect backcourt complement to Trevion Williams, helping to elevate Purdue to a 4 seed in the NCAA tournament. While the rest of Purdue's freshman class has performed valiantly throughout the season, Ivey has the highest upside of any freshman in the Big Ten conference.
What separates Jaden from the pack is his elite burst and finishing ability, coupled with his emerging floor game. When taken in concert, they portend a bright NBA future at the lead guard slot. The most evident strength that will enable him to translate his game to the highest level is his ability to get to the rim. While Ivey initially was a bit out of control attacking the basket early in the season (and still, to some extent, has his moments), his decision making driving to the basket has grown by leaps and bounds over the course of the 2020-21 season. While his handle is serviceable at this stage, he must continue to refine his ball control for the next level, as this will enable him to slow the game down. In particular, he should continue to perfect his stop and go hesitation moves, which are already very impressive. Importantly, Ivey's first step is one of the best in the Big Ten. He is explosive off the dribble, and his handle is serviceable enough to get him to the spots he wants on the floor. On the initial attack, he easily gains an advantage over defenders at this level, based purely on his explosiveness.
After blowing by his man, Ivey often meets the secondary help defender at the rim, where he is able to draw contact at a high rate. His 5 fouls drawn per 40 minutes ranks 10th in the Big Ten conference this year. Ivey gains such an advantage because of his elite hangtime - when you watch him, it feels like he is effortlessly gliding in the air. Ivey loves reverse layups in particular, hanging in the air and often finishing through contact. This strategy will prove to be particularly effective against NBA shot blockers, utilizing the rim as a shield. In terms of his efficiency, Ivey is connecting on 50.9% of his 2pt attempts, which is comparable to Ayo on a percentage basis (without accounting for usage). Given the degree of difficulty on many of his hanging layups, this percentage is actually favorable in my eyes.
As a result, Jaden is particularly deadly out in transition. He often secures the loose defensive rebound, before pushing it ahead for an easy basket or foul.
In the halfcourt, Ivey's understanding of the game off the ball has improved as this season has progressed.
When it comes to his outside shooting, Jaden will have to considerably improve his proficiency from beyond the arc if he ever hopes to play minutes in the NBA. As it stands today, he is shooting a paltry 24.7% from behind the three point line. He does not get much lift on his jumper. If he can refine this element of his game - in the offseason - this would help him to maximize his considerable potential. Impressively, Ivey is still getting to the rim with defenses often slacking off of him.
In terms of his floor game, Jaden Ivey is a much better playmaker than the 2.0apg basic stat indicates. As his game has developed in conference play, his floor game has grown, and he shows considerable potential in the pick and roll.
His in-conference assist rate was 20th best in the Big Ten this season and he has improved as the season has gone along. His two-man game with Trevion Williams is especially dynamic, and Ivey is gifted enough to thread the needle inside for some difficult feeds to his favorite roll man.
When slashing to the rim, Ivey is unselfish with the ball and will kick it out to open shooters on the wings as well. Ivey sees the floor a lot better than his statistics indicate.
With more responsibility in the NCAA tournament, given the 43 minutes he played against Ohio St in the Big Ten Tournament (up from the 15.5 mpg he averaged the first 10 games of the year), Ivey will have a chance to demonstrate his excellent vision and emerging skillset. As he has received consistent minutes (instead of being subbed out for freshman mistakes, as he was in the first 10 games), Ivey's offense and confidence has reached another level, culminating in his 19 point outburst against Ohio St in the Big Ten Tournament. He is averaging 16.6ppg over his last five games, hoping to carry this momentum into the NCAA tournament. If Ivey can continue his hot shooting in the NCAA tournament, hitting 40%+ from 3 as he did in his last game, he should be in the NBA draft conversation.
While most believe that the three point shot is now a prerequisite for a guard entering the NBA, this was not always the case and many NBA guards developed their shots in the league. For example, after a strong tournament run alongside Greg Oden, Mike Conley was a one and done drafted at number 4 overall (in the 2007 draft), and has largely lived up to expectations. At the college level, Conley connected on just 30% of his 3 pt attempts as a freshman. While by no means are they comparable as players (Conley was head and shoulders above Ivey as a playmaker, yet lacks Ivey's explosive hangtime), this example only serves to underscore that players can be drafted and improve their shooting ability at the NBA level.
Another reason why I believe that Ivey is best suited to develop in the G League vs. college is due to spacing. While Coach Matt Painter has done an excellent job of manufacturing iso plays for Ivey and not completely clogging the lane by placing Williams and Edey in at the same time, Ivey's pro development as a slasher and playmaker would be better served in a pro system where his strengths are accentuated. Spacing is much different in the NBA, and with the focus on freedom of motion, Ivey is the kind of athlete whose floor game would improve significantly as a pro vs. college. While it could be argued that returning to Purdue would enable Ivey to work on other elements of his game (such as three point shooting), it would be easier for Ivey to develop his pick and roll decision making within the parameters of the pro game. Additionally, NBA pro teams' developmental expectations are raised with every passing year spent at the collegiate level.
On the defensive side of the ball, Ivey utilizes his elite athleticism and physical tools to pester his opponents. Ivey's good length and lateral quickness enable him to stay in front of most players. And, due to his quick leaping ability and nice second jump, Ivey is dynamic making plays as a help defender. This is supported by his 3.58% Blocks % according to kenpom.com, which ranks ahead of fellow NBA prospect Franz Wagner, for context.
While Ivey was occasionally late closing out on shooters early in the year, he has definitely been more competitive in this respect as the season has gone on. In terms of his pick and roll defensive potential, Ivey is constantly fighting through screens at the collegiate level. He does a nice job of competing and playing up on shooters when the pick is set. Overall, due to his length and athleticism, he should be able to guard at least two positions at the next level.
All in all, Jaden Ivey is a good NBA prospect who could capitalize on an excellent NCAA tournament and opt to develop his pick and roll fundamentals in the G League (upon entering the 2021 draft). While he probably will stay another year or two at Purdue, it will be interesting to track his progress in the NCAA tournament. If he has a few breakout performances against Javion Hamlet and North Texas, as well as against Villanova and/or Baylor, this could boost his stock considerably. Keep an eye on his developing floor game in the NCAA tournament.
Image Courtesy of purduesports.com; Video Courtesy of Big Ten+ and ESPN
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