Round 3
West
Gonzaga vs. Creighton
While my bracket was off, predicting that Ohio would meet Gonzaga in the Sweet Sixteen matchup, Creighton was always a strong threat. Importantly, the Blue Jays locked in on Jason Preston and limited Ohio. Creighton is only capable of challenging if Ballock has one of his lights out shooting performances (5 or more 3's). I anticipate that this game will be another blowout for Gonzaga. They simply have too much inside with Timme and I do not anticipate that Jefferson will be able to cause any problems for Kispert. Look for Gonzaga to once again cruise barring a lights out shooting performance from Creighton, similar to their game against Villanova earlier in the year.
USC vs. Oregon
Oregon's game against Iowa was arguably the most impressive and eye opening game of the round (with the possible exception of Alabama). While USC won the first matchup and their length should cause some serious problems for Oregon, I anticipate that the Duarte/Richardson backcourt will simply be too much for Tahj Eaddy and USC. I do not believe that USC's three point shooting from Isaiah Mobley and co is sustainable, nor do I feel that Oregon will shoot as well from beyond the arc, due mostly to USC's length and pressure. If Oregon looks to push the pace, I believe that USC can keep up with them. However, I believe that the Ducks will simply shoot better from beyond the arc, which will give them the edge in this one.
East
Michigan vs. Florida St.
After running through my pick, Colorado, in the previous round, I believe that Florida St is one of the most dangerous teams left on this side of the bracket, and a greater test than either Alabama or UCLA. You can't teach size, and Florida St. can simply throw big after big at Hunter Dickinson, possibly making his life as difficult as possible. Koprivica, Ngom, Gray, and Osborne form an extremely formidable front line. However, I think that the guard play will be the deciding factor in this contest; in particular, how well Mike Smith handles the length and size of Florida St. will be critical to the Michigan attack. Importantly, I believe that his defensive impact and ability to turn Florida St over could ultimately be the Seminoles' achilles heel. If Florida St handles the pressure and contests Michigan's shooters, they could easily come out of this one. However, I believe that Dickinson will be able to find open shooters and draw fouls at a high rate. I think that Michigan's backcourt is extremely underrated defensively and this will be the difference in this one.
Alabama vs. UCLA
My bracket was also off with this contest, as I anticipated that Alabama would lose after suffering a cold shooting night in round 2 (vs. UConn I was projecting). Against Maryland, this could not have been further from the case, and the Tide rolled by Maryland, dominating the game from start to finish. The Tide is red hot from beyond the arc and an extremely difficult matchup for UCLA. While Abilene Christian was a tough contest for a Texas team missing a true point guard, Tyger Campbell handled the pressure with ease and ultimately more of the Bruins' shots fell. Against Alabama, UCLA will have to slow the game down or they are going to get run out of the gym. I anticipate that Alabama will win this game rather easily. Look for Jaden Shackelford and Jahvon Quinerly to continue their torrid pace from long range.
South
Baylor vs. Villanova
What a matchup this will be! Never count the Villanova Wildcats out, as long as Jay Wright is at the helm, coaching and recruiting some of the toughest players in all of college basketball. They dominated North Texas in a way I did not expect and Baby Arch/Antoine have gotten up to speed remarkably quickly. However, beating North Texas and Winthrop is far different than the ball pressure they will see against Baylor. The two ways to beat the Wildcats all season have been with a dominant interior presence and with guards who turn you over. Davion Mitchell is one of the best on ball defenders in the country and I anticipate that he will have himself a game. If the Baby Arch/Antoine combo are strong with the ball and bring the Wildcats into their halfcourt sets, this game could actually be close. Villanova is shooting the ball better than it has all season, but they have not played with as potent a defense as Baylor. Much like the St. John's game, I anticipate that Baylor's defense will prove to be too much and lead to run outs. If Villanova shoots well, though, (unlike the St. John's game) they can hang with the Bears. This should be a fun one.
Arkansas vs. Oral Roberts
These teams matched up previously and Justin Smith was way too much on the interior for Oral Roberts. Considering the fact that Oral Roberts faced two high majors without incredible size (EJ Liddell is only 6'7 and Colin Castleton is solid but not a traditional back to the basket big), I anticipate that Arkansas will be more of a struggle. While Justin Smith has similar size to Liddell, they also can counter with 7'3 Connor Vanover if they want to create a huge size mismatch. If Vanover draws much of the defensive attention, this would open up the game for Justin Smith inside. Importantly, Oral Roberts would have to keep up their torrid pace of three point shooting. Abmas and Obanor are hoping to continue their magical run, and I think they will play Arkansas tough, but may ultimately come up short due to a lack of size. Moody is also someone to watch out for in this contest. If he hits shots consistently, it could be a long night for Oral Roberts. Overall, I believe that this will be a closer game than their first contest, but I do not believe that Oral Roberts' magic will continue into the Elite Eight, though I would love to see it happen.
Midwest
Loyola Chicago vs. Oregon St.
I am going to stick with my bracket on this one, though I believe that Oregon St. will pose a huge challenge for the Ramblers. This is a game where I believe Oregon St. is going to look to push the pace, but it may simply come down to who can hit the most shots. Ethan Thompson has been great throughout this tournament. Look for Lucas Williamson to slow Thompson down. But, can Krutwig stay out of foul trouble twice against the Beavers' interior might in 7'1 Roman Silva and 6'10 Maurice Calloo? Calloo, in particular, was great against Oklahoma St. I think Oregon St. will learn the lessons from the Illinois tape and try to jump the ball screens, disrupting Loyola Chicago's slashers. However, I do think that the Ramblers will counter and connect on a higher percentage of their three point shots. If Krutwig does get into foul trouble, can Aher Uguak step up and provide some scoring punch? This should be a close one, but I will lean with my bracket pick in Loyola Chicago.
Houston vs. Syracuse
I may very well regret making this pick, but I have to go with my bracket over the hotter team in this one. Syracuse has been great from the floor, with Buddy Boeheim and Joseph Girard firing on all cylinders. And Houston shot the ball very poorly against Rutgers, with Sasser - in particular - struggling. I believe that the Syracuse zone is going to pose an issue for Houston early on, but I think they can counter this by crashing the glass and creating second chance opportunities at the rim. Houston is an excellent offensive rebounding team. Oddly, Culver struggled to finish inside against Syracuse's frontline, but I anticipate that Houston will come out even more ferocious on the glass. I also believe that this Cougars team will shoot a bit better from the floor than they did against Rutgers (they will have to if they hope to win). Importantly, recall that Syracuse nearly imploded against West Virginia late in the game trying to in bound the basketball. You can bet that Kelvin Sampson is going to apply pressure on Syracuse's guards. And Dejon Jarreau, who was severely limited against Rutgers with a hip pointer, should be a difference maker in this one with an additional week of rest. Can Houston shoot well enough to stick around with the Cuse? Quentin Grimes is going to have to carry his team on his back. This should be a very close game, unless Houston can't handle the zone; in which case, it will probably be a blowout in favor of Syracuse.
Photo Courtesy of Detroit Free Press
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