Round 3
West
Gonzaga vs. USC
If USC shoots like they did against Oregon and Kansas, the Zags are in for their toughest test of the tournament, with the possible exception of Baylor. Length kills and USC has it at every position. While the Mobley brothers do tend to bite on shot fakes, I anticipate that the help defense on Drew Timme will stymie him a bit on the block. The only way that USC stands a chance is if they can shoot the ball from the perimeter. Evan Mobley has not made many strides on the offensive end, though USC should exploit his size mismatch on the block to try to get Timme in foul trouble. Unfortunately for them, the Zags can counter with Oumar Ballo and his 7'6 wingspan off the bench to bother the Mobleys, if necessary. Isaiah will need to step up this game in the two big lineup, as no one for Gonzaga has the size to match up with him. A difficulty that I foresee is the matchup defending either Ayayi or Kispert. With Eaddy likely to guard Suggs, one of Ayayi/Kispert will have an exploitable matchup. Their ability to execute on this will be the biggest key to the game. Importantly, USC forced Oregon to play at their tempo and the threat of their length made it difficult for Oregon to win on run outs. I anticipate that something similar will happen against Gonzaga, and that this will be one of the best games of the tournament. However, I do not believe that USC can keep up its hot shooting. The Zags ultimately may make more shots and edge them out.
East
Michigan vs. UCLA
With an outstanding showing against Florida St, Michigan is the odds-on favorite to make it to the Final Four out of the East region. With that said, UCLA's gritty performance against Alabama showed that they are not just the Johnny Juzang show. Cody Riley, Tyger Campbell, and David Singleton had very efficient outings against Alabama, bringing their A games when Juzang fouled out. With that said, I do not anticipate that their magical run will continue. Hunter Dickinson will probably prove to be too much inside for them. The offense should run through him. Mike Smith might have some difficulty with Tyger Campbell, but the rest of the Wolverines should have some open looks. In particular, I anticipate that Eli Brooks will continue to perform well, and Franz Wagner could have a strong showing. Look for Hunter's interior dominance to open up the game for Michigan's perimeter shooters. If UCLA counters, Juzang will have to play like he did in the first three rounds and Jaquez's scoring punch will also prove to be important. I anticipate that Michigan will win, despite UCLA playing their best basketball down the stretch in this tournament.
South
Baylor vs. Arkansas
This is probably the most difficult matchup of the round to predict. Baylor has not been shooting the ball well lately, and Jared Butler has struggled thus far in the tournament. While Arkansas has been sloppy with the ball at times, they play a loose brand of basketball and have the athletes/size to matchup with Baylor. Moses Moody could have a big game, and I do not know if Baylor's guards can contain him from the mid range or inside. Baylor will need Mark Vital to show up defensively on Justin Smith. If Arkansas handles the pressure and stays within striking distance (as they have in their 2nd half comebacks throughout the tournament), this game could come down to one possession at the end. With Butler struggling shooting the ball, Davion Mitchell will be that much more important on the offensive end. Matthew Mayer is a complete X factor in this game and he could be the most crucial piece absent Davion.
Midwest
Houston vs. Oregon St.
Oregon St. keeps rolling and their size proved to be too much for Loyola Chicago, as was my concern. Late in the game, Loyola simply could not make the big shots to finish off their comeback. Oregon St. has continued to concede points late in tournament games, but Ethan Thompson and even Maurice Calloo have hit some big shots down the stretch. The key to this game will be Dejon Jarreau's ability to lock up Thompson, who has been one of the best players in the NCAA tournament. After defending Buddy Boeheim admirably, Jarreau is in for another tall task. His hip pointer injury on the second game in three days might play a role in this contest. I anticipate that Jarreau will be able to disrupt Thompson enough to stymie the Oregon St. offense, at least early on. Their ability to shut down Oregon St for the rest of the game will then depend on Houston's ability to stay out of foul trouble, as they have been undisciplined for stretches. In the Beavers' last contest, Williamson's foul trouble for Loyola enabled the Beavers to pull ahead on a big run. History could repeat itself again with Jarreau if Houston is not carefully managing its players' foul situations. The other key factor will be Houston's ability to offensive rebound. Oregon St. is a bigger team and this might prevent second chance opportunities by the Cougars. Ultimately, if Grimes and Sasser can carry their offensive momentum into this next contest, and the Houston bigs attack the offensive glass, Houston could finish this game on a late run. The margin for error is razor thin in this one and it could go either way.
Photo Courtesy of si.com
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