Round 2
West
Gonzaga vs. Oklahoma
The Zags look like an unstoppable force and are again undefeated going into this one. I picked Missouri in my bracket due to the absence of Harmon, but Oklahoma once again proved just how resilient they are. There just isn't enough firepower here unless Reaves goes for 40 points on efficient shooting. Despite how outstanding Kruger is as a coach and the heart that his team displays, the Zags should win this rather easily.
Creighton vs. Ohio
While Creighton barely escaped UCSB when the Gauchos' tip in rimmed out, I do anticipate that they will give Ohio a game. I still believe that the threat of Preston will probably be too much, and Creighton has been sloppy at times. If Ballock can hit his open looks, Creighton should be extremely tough. Both are relatively small teams. I anticipate that Ohio will probably out-shoot Creighton, as the Blue Jays have shot poorly in recent outings. I expect this game to be close.
Kansas vs. USC
I am a bit concerned about my bracket predictions for this game, as I believe Kansas matches up very well with USC. Marcus Garrett may end up guarding Drew Peterson, who was excellent in USC's matchup with Drake. I expect this game to be a grind-it-out battle, as USC's length and perimeter defense has been phenomenal. Agbaji is going to have to have a spectacular performance for them to win this game. If USC is able to feed Evan Mobley inside, I believe he should physically overwhelm David McCormack on the interior. Even if McCormack plays sound interior defense, Isaiah Mobley should be there to follow up any misses. I think that USC's ability to dominate on the glass and contest Kansas' drives will be the difference maker.
Iowa vs. Oregon
From the get go, Oregon is at a huge disadvantage against Iowa because they won their VCU contest by forfeiture, due to covid-19 protocols. Every single year since the first four started, a first four team has won its second contest. This is further evidence for the significance of momentum. Because Iowa has a game under its belt already, they should be the looser team coming into this one and are at a significant advantage. In terms of the personnel matchup, Duarte could be extremely difficult for Iowa to contain, but I worry about Omoruyi getting into foul trouble trying to guard Garza. On the flip side, Garza will probably have trouble defending on the perimeter if Omoruyi is shooting well. Breakout freshman Keegan Murray will therefore play a significant role in the outcome of this one. I believe that this will be a very high scoring duel, where the first to 85 points wins it. Iowa will need Bohannon to continue his sweet shooting and for Wieskamp to step up in this one.
East
Michigan vs. LSU
This could be one of the most difficult matchups to predict in the entire second round and honestly is a bit of a coin flip in my opinion. LSU is red hot from the floor and Cameron Thomas can shoot the ball from the parking lot. Michigan typically fights hard defensively and I would expect Franz Wagner and co. to contest LSU. The absence of Livers will be felt in this game though. The biggest key for Michigan will be the play of Hunter Dickinson. He cannot foul out like he did against Texas Southern. Will Watford be able to matchup with him inside? Unless Mike Smith and the rest of Michigan's backcourt shoot lights out, the Dickinson/Watford matchup will likely be the determining factor. LSU's defense has looked much improved and Coach Wade has his team buying in.
Florida St. vs. Colorado
Call me crazy, but I think that Colorado should win this one. I have always had concerns about Florida St's guard play in the tournament (which was evident against Georgia Tech in the ACC Tournament), and I believe that Colorado has a top 5 lead guard in McKinley Wright. Unless Florida St. and Colorado experience some serious mean reversion on their three point shooting after they hit 0% and 64% respectively in their first round contests, I do not see the Seminoles winning this one. Importantly, Jabari Walker emerged against Georgetown and his ability to stretch against Florida St's bigs will be absolutely pivotal.
UCLA vs. Abilene Christian
My bracket was off on this one, as I had BYU beating Abilene in the 2nd round. Importantly, I made this bracket before news of Johnny Juzang's availability came to light (after he suffered what looked like a bad ankle sprain at the end of the Michigan St. play-in game). When Juzang was not scoring against BYU, BYU went on a tear and got back in the game. So, his play has been absolutely critical (and I didn't expect him to be close to full strength). I expect Juzang to continue his sweet shooting against Abilene Christian. After putting on one of the most impressive defensive clinics I have ever witnessed in the NCAA tournament - beating Texas shooting 29.9% from the field and 16.7% from 3 - I believe that Abilene will run out of steam. Even with a day between games, I do not know if they can carry over the same level of effort and intensity into this game. While one could argue they have all year, this Texas game was particularly exhausting for them. Playing another team with good size could prove too much, especially if they shoot the same way. I hope the underdog wins though.
Alabama vs. Maryland
I also had this contest wrong in my bracket. I projected that UConn would emerge as a defensive stalwart and out-shoot Maryland, with Bouknight serving as the hero en route to an Alabama upset. UConn was atrocious from the free throw line, hitting 5-12 attempts and it appeared that Bouknight hoped the refs would bail him out on just about every drive. Maryland's D was sound throughout and I expect that trend to continue into the Alabama game. However, I believe that Maryland's shooting in the first half of the UConn game, which essentially gave them the lead, will not carry over against Alabama. Bama is much longer on the perimeter and I do not believe that they will have as many defensive lapses, leaving three point shooters wide open. This should be tightly contested and low scoring, but I expect Alabama to pull this one out.
South
Baylor vs. Wisconsin
Jared Butler and Davion Mitchell did not have good games shooting the ball against Hartford. I expect them to turn it around against Wisconsin, which will counter with experienced guards Trice and Davison. With all the battles that Wisconsin has been in in the Big 10, I do not expect them to back down in this one. Matchup wise, this isn't an ideal matchup for Baylor, as Vital may have a difficult time guarding Potter and/or Rivers along the perimeter if they are hitting shots. With that said, I fully expect Baylor's guards to clamp down on Davison and Trice defensively and limit their productivity. Look for Baylor to bounce back from a good performance against Hartford, though it will probably be a tightly contested game.
Villanova vs. North Texas
This pick goes against my instincts here. Hamlet is playing with a huge chip on his shoulders and will provide a steadying presence against Villanova's guards. Can Moore contain him one on one? And if he does, will that open up the game for North Texas' three point shooters? Villanova left Winthrop's wings open in the first contest way too often and the Eagles were simply unable to knock down shots. North Texas shot 42.9% from 3 against Purdue. So, Villanova's guards will have to really clamp down defensively. Overall, I was impressed by Nova's defense against Winthrop and they spent a ton of effort trying to help down on DJ Burns. Zachary Simmons is excellent and I expect him to play well against Villanova. But, he should not command the same defensive attention as Nova placed on DJ Burns. Robinson Earl should be able to check him one on one. This will enable Nova's guards to focus more on three point shooters. On the offensive side, Nova needs to shoot better and play under control. Robinson Earl's post production will be critical here. If Antoine and Baby Arch can offer anything, Nova should win it. I expect this contest to be within 3 points most of the way, unless North Texas builds a large lead.
Arkansas vs. Texas Tech
Texas Tech looked great in their first matchup against Utah St. Beard has his team playing well at the right time of year once again. With that said, I believe that Coach Musselman will have Arkansas playing with more energy, as they basically sleepwalked to a victory against Colgate. I anticipate that Connor Vanover will play a larger role and present mismatch problems for Tech. I anticipate that the defense of Arkansas' guards will be far more impactful than what Tech experienced against Utah St. Moses Moody should have a much more inspired contest against Tech and Notae will be the X factor for them.
Florida vs. Oral Roberts
I whiffed on both of these matchups in my bracket. I anticipate that Florida's speed and athleticism will be too much for Oral Roberts' guards in transition. Scottie Lewis is an elite perimeter defender, and I believe he will do a much better job on Abmas, Obanor or whoever he is tasked with guarding. Tre Mann was a revelation against Virginia Tech and I expect him to continue his torrid pace.
Midwest
Illinois vs. Loyola Chicago
I am not changing any picks from my bracket results, so I will provide my initial logic here (from when I filled out my bracket). While I don't believe that there is a single player in college basketball that can match Kofi Cockburn physically, I believe that Cameron Krutwig has the "know how" to cause Illinois problems. I anticipate that Krutwig will operate from the high post and feed interior cutters for much of this game. If he is slacked on, Krutwig can hit balanced jumpers. This should draw Cockburn out of the paint and enable Loyola's guards to have a cutting lane. On the defensive end, I believe that Loyola is one of the toughest defenses in the country and they are extremely fundamentally sound. I believe that Krutwig will try to defend without fouling. If Kofi gets him in foul trouble, then Jacob Hutson will play a much bigger role. With that said, I believe that Uguak and Williamson should be able to matchup with Frazier and Ayo. If they take Illinois' guards out of rhythm and Kofi gets into early foul trouble, this could spell danger zone for the Illini. Look for this to be a close one due to Loyola's toughness and perimeter shooting. They are a nightmare draw in round 2.
Oklahoma St. vs. Oregon St.
I missed out on picking Oregon St. vs. Tennessee, believing that they would not be able to match up with Tennessee's perimeter defense. Jarod Lucas and Ethan Thompson have been a revelation to close the season and 7'1 center Roman Silva could present a matchup nightmare for Oklahoma St. and Cade Cunningham. I anticipate that Kalib Boone will be able to contain Silva inside and Cade's length should disrupt Oregon St. shooters. The Cowboys, and Isaac Likekele in particular, need to play under control, or they will enable Oregon St. to get out in transition. I anticipate that Oklahoma St.'s perimeter defense will prove to be a bad matchup for Oregon St. USC has exceptional length and they split with Oregon St. during the regular season, so I anticipate that this will be a very close matchup.
West Virginia vs. Syracuse
Buddy Boeheim and Cuse represent a huge matchup problem for every team they face and they are clicking at exactly the right time. Boeheim shot 7-10 from three and carried his team to a victory. Having seen Cunningham a couple of times this season, I anticipate that WVU will do what they can to slow Buddy down. I believe a combination of defenders could be effective, and Miles McBride or Emmitt Matthews will have a shot to disrupt him. Culver inside should prove to be too much for the Cuse and his rim protecting will be essential if they are to win this game. Look for Sherman and McNeil to provide a nice offensive 1-2 bunch.
Houston vs. Rutgers
While I do not believe that Rutgers will lay down in this game, Houston is simply the more physical team defensively. With Ron Harper Jr. in a bit of a shooting slump, I anticipate that Houston will lock in defensively, particularly with Jarreau (though he is going to be somewhat limited due to a hip injury). With Jarreau a bit limited, I anticipate that Rutgers can make this more of a game, but I like Grimes and Sasser to hit their open shots. I believe that Houston can match Rutgers' pace and if this game becomes a running match, it favors the Cougars. Myles Johnson's interior D will be critical for Rutger's chances.
Image Courtesy of loyolaramblers.com
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