In tonight's update, I cover the Sweet Sixteen matchups and who should advance to the Elite 8.
Michigan vs. Villanova - I hate to say this again, but Michigan is a very bad matchup for Villanova because of Hunter Dickinson. Nova's rugged forwards will not likely be able to counter the matchup problem that Dickinson presents inside. If they help down all game and force the ball out of his hands, this will leave someone open. Caleb Houstan and Eli Brooks have been hitting their shots and picking their spots well. But, Villanova is not going to lie down against anyone, and I expect them to play with more focus than they did against Ohio State. Collin Gillespie and Justin Moore will need to shoot well for Nova to emerge. Slater will have to limit his fouls and continue to apply pressure on D. Eric Dixon will have his work cut out for him on the defensive end, but he also can draw fouls on Hunter. This game should be fun. Despite the bad matchup, Villanova is on a mission.
Outcome: Villanova
Arkansas vs. Gonzaga - The Arkansas Razorbacks have the size, athleticism, and strength to match up with Gonzaga. I do not believe that they will have any problem creating shots and finishing at the rim. They also can run with the Zags, as they showed much of the SEC season. For this reason, they are technically a bad matchup. However, it will depend on what version of JD Notae comes to play. If he is turnover prone and gets into foul trouble, this game could get out of hand rather quickly. Gonzaga rarely allows teams to hang around. For every punch, there needs to be an equal counterpunch, or the Zags' lead will swell to double figures. I expect the Zags to turn Notae over and easily escape in this one.
Outcome: Gonzaga
Texas Tech vs. Duke - Texas Tech's tough D could spell problems for the Blue Devils. They compete and physically impose their will on other teams. However, this Duke team has the size in Mark Williams and Paolo Banchero to not only match up with Texas Tech, but to cause some problems for the Red Raiders. I expect Kevin McCullar to turn Duke over and have a big game. But, AJ Griffin and Wendell Moore's length and athleticism should present unique matchup problems. Can Trevor Keels play under control? This will be pivotal. I envision Duke winning in a hard fought battle, where their talented offensive attack is able to overcome a stingy defense.
Outcome: Duke
Arizona vs. Houston - The Houston Cougars are an interesting opponent for Arizona. They fight on the offensive glass and consistently create extra opportunities. Will they get these second chance points against Zona's frontline of Azuolas Tubelis and Christian Koloko? I do not believe that they have the size to contend with Arizona inside. And, on the outside, Dalen Terry and Ben Mathurin should present unique match up problems with their length and athleticism. Taze Moore could be the X factor for Houston if this game is close. I ultimately believe the Wildcats will win by a comfortable margin because of their interior strength.
Outcome: Arizona
Kansas vs. Providence - The Friars are really on a roll after escaping the dreaded Jackrabbits of South Dakota St. They are defensively sound, with both Jared Bynum and Al Durham playing very well. Nate Watson is a handful inside, and he should continue to cause problems against David McCormick and Kansas. With that said, Providence's D will really be tested with the length of All American Ochai Agbaji and understated athleticism of Christian Braun. If Remy Martin plays under control, Providence is really going to be in trouble. Kansas brings too much offensive firepower to this duel. They should win in a tightly contested fist fight.
Outcome: Kansas
UCLA vs. North Carolina - With the Tarheels' high octane attack, they are the darkhorse team to cut down the nets this year. Their transition game and the scoring of Caleb Love and RJ Davis on the wing will be key against one of the most experienced teams left in the field. Brady Manek has also been phenomenal lately. UCLA can counter, though, with Myles Johnson, who is a viable rim protector and shot blocker. Cody Riley should be able to draw Bacot and co. away from the paint defensively. How effective Jaime Jaquez will be after his ankle injury will be incredibly important, considering we have not yet seen last year's Johnny Juzang in this tournament. Ultimately, floor general Tyger Campbell should be able to slow down the pace and force North Carolina into half court sets. When that happens, UCLA will have the edge.
Outcome: UCLA
Miami (Fl.) vs. Iowa State - Gabe Kalscheur shot the ball extremely well against Wisconsin. I expect Izaiah Brockington to have a better game against Miami (Fl.) as well. However, the Hurricane's three headed guard attack of Kameron McGusty, Isaiah Wong, and Charlie Moore should prove to be too dynamic for the Cyclones, even if they are able to muck the game up. Don't expect the Hurricanes to shoot 2-22 from three point range like Wisconsin did.
Outcome: Miami (Fl.)
St. Peter's vs. Purdue - Can the Peacocks continue their magical run against Purdue? This true David-Goliath matchup features 7'4 standout Zach Edey facing off against proverbial underdogs 6'8 Clarence Rupert and 6'7 KC NDefo. While NDefo has been the best shot blocker in this tournament, size kills. I do not expect St. Peter's to be able to counter Purdue's interior might. While the Peacocks can impose their physicality on this game, Jaden Ivey's electric transition attack should have St. Pete's guards on their heels for much of the game. If St. Peter's can shoot like they did against Kentucky, all bets are off though. Will the move to the Wells Fargo Center impact their shooting? Unless Jaden Ivey really presses the D, this could devolve into a half court battle, which would be a coin flip with the way St. Peter's is executing their sets. I expect a close one barring early foul trouble from NDefo.
Outcome: Purdue
Image Courtesy of si.com
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