After one day of action, my bracket is completely busted. As anticipated, this is a bit of a strange year. But, the shooting struggles of Kellan Grady is something I should have taken into account. You can't win in the tournament if you can't shoot. After a day of taking in the new landscape, here are my amended second round predictions.
North Carolina-Baylor - UNC absolutely blew Marquette out and bullied them inside. The Tar Heels won't have the same advantage against Baylor. If Caleb Love and RJ Davis can shoot it, UNC has a chance to upset the Baylor Bears. I do not believe that the Tar Heels will outshoot this Baylor team. Sochan's defensive presence will prove to be too much for Brady Manek. This game will be close, but it is a bad matchup from a personnel standpoint for UNC.
Outcome: Baylor
Creighton-Kansas - I was flirting with the idea of advancing Creighton in my original bracket because of how well they played in the Big East tournament, as well as the winning experience of Ryan Hawkins with Northwest Missouri State. However, they came out extremely flat against San Diego State, and struggled against significant ball pressure. Kansas only boasts lengthier athletes. Also, the loss of Kalkbrenner to injury effectively eliminates the challenge in my mind.
Outcome: Kansas
Michigan-Tennessee - Originally, I anticipated that Colorado State would come in shooting like St. Peter's because of their experience and David Roddy connecting on almost 45% of his three point shots on the year. They came out completely flat in the second half and could not hit an open shot or layup. Michigan is still rife for upset though. While Frankie Collins played extremely well last round, Michigan's run should end because of Tennessee's defensive intensity and the play of Santi Vescovi. Can DeVante' Jones play the hero role? Jones is a gifted player, but it would take a lot to outplay Tennessee's backcourt. For NBA draft stock watchers, Caleb Houstan has been great.
Outcome: Tennessee
Richmond-Providence - Richmond played remarkably well on the defensive end against Iowa. Jacob Gilyard is a problem, but the Friars counter with a ton of grit and defensive intensity. While the Iowa front line allowed Richmond to score some easy baskets, I don't anticipate that this will happen against Nate Watson unless he gets into foul trouble early. Al Durham's motor and defensive pressure should limit Gilyard a bit more than Iowa was able to do. This is a bad second round matchup for the Spiders.
Outcome: Providence
St. Mary's-UCLA - My prediction that Indiana would upset St. Mary's was simply because the First Four teams appear to have an advantage developing a rhythm. St. Mary's dismantled the Hoosiers in an embarrassing fashion. UCLA has way more weapons than Indiana, but can they step out on St. Mary's shooters? The Gaels are shooting too well in my opinion, and they should be able to pull the upset.
Outcome: St. Mary's
Murray State-St. Peter's - While I was obviously upset that my bracket was busted this early, St. Peter's played outstanding basketball against Kentucky. Daryl Banks was phenomenal against the Wildcats. And, the Peacock's Ndefo was limited with foul trouble in the first half. Murray State's pace and defensive intensity should present a unique challenge for St. Peter's, who pride themselves on these same principles. Murray appears to have more weapons, so they are more likely to win. But, do not count out St. Peter's if they can continue to shoot at such a high clip.
Outcome: Murray State
Arkansas-New Mexico St - Teddy Allen played the best game of the tournament so far. He hit some incredibly difficult shots against UConn's defensive intensity. Arkansas has lengthy athletes that can match up with the Aggies. JD Notae is a bit out of control at times, but he is one of the quickest athletes in the open floor. I do not anticipate that the Aggies can continue to shoot at the same clip against Arkansas, but you never know. This field is wide open.
Outcome: Arkansas
Memphis-Gonzaga - Memphis had a big lead against Boise State, but allowed the Broncos to get back in the game. Memphis is one of the most talented, athletic teams in the tournament. On paper, they should be able to give Gonzaga fits. However, the Zags are simply way more experienced and play a fundamentally sound brand of basketball. The Tigers are capable of winning this game, but they likely won't. Timme should have a big game.
Outcome: Gonzaga
Image Courtesy of University of North Carolina athletics
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