Breakthrough 2022 - Highlighting the NCAA's Top Breakout Prospects

In light of Tuesday's NCAA basketball 2021-22 tip off, I have scoured late season/summer film to identify potential breakout prospects coming into this year. In this brief synopsis, I discuss Purdue's Jaden Ivey, Colorado's Jabari Walker, Villanova's Brandon Slater, Alabama's Keon Ellis, and Michigan's DeVante' Jones.

Far and away, my favorite breakout prospect entering the 2021-22 season is Purdue's Jaden Ivey. As I noted in "One and Done? The Case for Jaden Ivey's Emergence Ahead of the NCAA Tournament", Ivey is an elite prospect with a good chance to be selected in the top 10 in the 2022 NBA draft (if not the top 3). Upon making a splash in the NCAA tournament, willing his team with 26 pivotal points against North Texas, Ivey continued his emergence over the summer. His performance with Team USA on the U19 team earned him a spot on the World Cup Allstar Team and he was an indispensable part of the US' first place finish. While Ivey has not yet come into his own as a pure point, his elite handle, burst, and emerging floor game portend a bright future as a shot creator and ball distributor. 

Jaden moves well without the ball, and is dynamic streaking to the basket. While he will need to show that he can operate in the pick and roll, Ivey demonstrated considerable growth as a shooter over the summer, something which should help keep defenses honest and shore up the rest of his game. 

On the defensive side of the ball, Ivey is an absolute pest in the passing lanes. 

His quick leaping ability enables him to chase down blocks. 

Overall, Jaden Ivey projects as one of the most dynamic on ball defenders entering the 2021-22 season. 

It is easy to see why he very well could be college basketball's top returning NCAA prospect.  

Colorado's rising sophomore forward Jabari Walker (son of former NBA player Samaki Walker) also broke out in the NCAA tournament against Georgetown. While he had shot the ball well all season long (in 2020-21), connecting on 52.3% of his 3 pt attempts, Walker scorched the nets in his first NCAA tournament appearance against Georgetown. Importantly for his transition to the next level, Walker has excellent pick and roll fundamentals, and does a nice job finding gaps for open pick and pop opportunities.

In his first season, Walker functioned primarily as a spot up shooter who also moved well without the ball and finished on clean up baskets. To take his game to the next level, Walker must demonstrate that he can handle the ball and create for his teammates. His "freshman" decision making was questionable at times, and his 0.5-to-1 assist to turnover ratio left a lot to be desired. Look for Jabari Walker to make significant strides here and demonstrate a more diversified offensive repertoire. 

On the defensive end, Walker possesses good versatility and the potential to switch onto perimeter players. While his footspeed is decent relative to his size, Walker's greatest strength is his ability to cover ground and disrupt shots. As you can see from the below clip, Walker was able to disrupt a shooter while also containing dribble penetration.

In lieu of his good footspeed and excellent quick closeout recoveries to open shooters, Walker is a formidable 1 on 1 defender on the perimeter.

But, can he rim protect? Walker must demonstrate growth in his interior defense and rim protection. This will be a major question mark for him as we embark on a new season. 

   

In terms of upperclassmen with the potential to breakout, Villanova's Brandon Slater is one of the strongest candidates due to his defensive versatility and efficient three point shooting. While I would not expect Slater to function as the go to weapon for Villanova this year, Slater certainly will play an important role on one of the top teams in the country and should easily eclipse his 17mpg played a season ago. 

In terms of the intricacies of his game, Slater is predominantly a 3-and-D threat with good length, athleticism, and a high basketball IQ. He shot 41.7% from 3pt range a year ago and almost never forced the action, only opting to shoot when open. 

Against Baylor in the Sweet Sixteen, Slater stood out on the defensive side of the ball, making several effort plays and wreaking havoc with his on ball defense.

Slater also fought for loose balls and rebounds, boxing out bigger opponents.

On the offensive side of the ball, Slater brought infectious energy to the game, dunking over Matthew Mayer on one possession and making a strong basket cut and finish on another.

Over the summer, Slater participated in the 3x3 U23 Championship with several of his Villanova teammates. There he showcased a more compact stroke with a shortened release. He was able to get this shot off the dribble with very little daylight between him and the defender, in stark contrast to the often open shots he took last season. 

Physically, Slater looks like he put even more effort in the weight room and is an imposing presence on the wing. This translated on the defensive end of the floor, as Slater served as a ball hawk, locking down his man one on one. 

Sporting a newfound confidence that coincides with increased minutes in the rotation, Brandon Slater should establish himself as one of the biggest surprise players of the 2021-22 season. He must continue to refine his handle to become a more versatile offensive weapon, but his stroke and defensive prowess should get him some looks at the next level.  

Another late blossoming upperclassman worth mentioning is Alabama's Keon Ellis, a long 6'6 wing with excellent one on one scoring ability. Ellis possesses a blazing first step and excellent hesitation moves getting to the rim. Ellis often implements shot/head fakes to draw his defender off balance. At 175 lbs, though, Ellis must continue to improve physically so that he can better finish through contact at the rim. This is particularly evident in transition, where he was often able to beat his man off the dribble, but needed to do a better job finishing through contact. 

While the strength of his game is clearly his one on one isolation offense, Ellis was relegated to a secondary scoring role a season ago, functioning primarily as a spot up shooting option along the perimeter (a little over a third of his offense according to Synergy Sports). Ellis excelled in this role and did a nice job of spacing the floor, moving into open positions along the perimeter, where he was ready to shoot at a moment's notice. He has an excellent sense for floor spacing and does a great job of freeing himself, moving without the ball. 

He connected on 38.9% of his attempts from three point range a year ago, and he could improve on this percentage if he corrects his tendency of moving the ball side to side on his shooting motion. 

With a season of SEC basketball under his belt, look for Ellis to be more comfortable slashing to the basket and finishing in halfcourt sets. 

With increased offensive responsibility, Ellis must be stronger with the ball and continue to refine his handle. Additionally, I expect him to make strides as a decision maker, utilizing his quick first step to find open teammates along the perimeter. 

On the defensive side of the ball, Ellis possesses excellent length, athleticism, and the footspeed to disrupt offensive players along the perimeter. He is a pest in passing lanes and has good spatial awareness, calling out rotations and finding his assignment when the offense shifts. Ellis' closeouts are extremely disruptive due to his exceptional length and quickness. He must continue to progress on this side of the ball by not biting too early on fakes and not undercutting jump shooters, both of which lead to unnecessary fouls. Ellis is very good on the defensive glass and uses these rebounds to push the tempo and attack out in transition. This will be a key part of Ellis' offensive production this year.

Overall, with one year in the SEC under his belt (after transferring from Florida Southwestern St. Junior College), Keon Ellis appears to be fully acclimated to the strength/speed difference of defenders at this level, and is poised for a breakout season with more responsibility initiating Alabama's offense. While he must continue to improve his strength profile and handle, Ellis is someone to keep an eye on in NBA draft circles due to his explosive first step and defensive skillset.

Lastly, Michigan's DeVante' Jones is a savvy old school point guard with the poise to take over games late.  The 6'1 Coastal Carolina transfer brings a steadying presence at the lead guard slot, controlling tempo and moving the ball around the perimeter. Jones should have no problem filling in for Mike Smith and controlling the pace of the game, opportunistically scoring for himself within the scheme of the offense. 

Upon declaring early for the NBA draft this summer, Jones was selected to the G League Elite Camp, where he blossomed in two exhibition contests. Throughout this event, Jones utilized his impressive handle, body control, and change-of-pace dribbles to get where he wanted in the lane and finish on several floaters and runners.

Jones does an excellent job of probing the defense with his exceptional footwork, finding open teammates or creating for himself. He frequently pushes the ball ahead of the defense and finds teammates along the perimeter. Look for him to flash some growth in the pick and roll game this year. 

Jones regularly puts his defender on his back hip and creates contact, earning extra trips to the free throw line. This was also one of his strengths at Coast Carolina, where he drew 5.4 fouls per 40 minutes, good for 2nd best in the Sun Belt (according to kenpom.com 2020-21 data).

When he isn't earning trips to the line, Jones utilizes his change-of-pace dribble to drive past his initial defender before sporting an effective running one hander (or fadeaway), the range of which extends out to the free throw line. 

In terms of his shooting ability, Jones is adept shooting off the catch. Look for him to improve on his 33% 3pt % a season ago with more open looks. Jones would benefit by adding more elevation to his jump shot.

On the defensive end, Jones is tenacious going after the ball. While he is not the most laterally quick guard, Jones possesses good awareness of spacing and moves to the appropriate spots on the floor. He habitually guides his man into the backline help defender. 

Importantly, Jones possesses very quick hands and was quite a nuisance at the G League Elite Camp. He quickly turns defense into offense. 

Given his good spatial awareness, Jones is also disruptive in passing lanes.

Importantly, Jones competes on the defensive glass - utilizing a solid base - and uses these plays to push the tempo. 

He does all of the little things to help his team win: diving on loose balls, cutting his man off, competing in the post, drawing charges, and hustling back on defense.

All in all, DeVante' Jones should emerge as one of the most important cogs in a revamped Michigan attack. If he can cut down on careless turnovers and play stronger with the ball in his hands, he should boost his pro stock. Jones must demonstrate that he can keep defenses honest from the perimeter as well, a wrinkle of his game he did not flash at the G League Elite Camp this summer.

Others Deserving Mention:

Moussa Cisse, Oklahoma St.

Andrew Nembhard, Gonzaga

Tramon Mark, Houston

Alonzo Verge Jr., Nebraska

Seth Lundy, Penn St.

Khalid Thomas, Portland St.

Chandler Jacobs, Colorado St.

Data Sources: Synergy Sports Technology, ESPN+, FIBA, & Kenpom.com

Image Source: usab.com, cubuffs.com, vuhoops.com, si.com, & maizenbrew.com

NCAA Tournament Bracket Analysis (Part 5) - The Final Four and Championship Games

Final Four & Championship Games

Final Four

Gonzaga vs. UCLA

Can UCLA continue their magical run and beat arguably the most dominant college team of the last decade? I do not think that they have the firepower from a matchup standpoint. While Riley and co. may look to try to limit Drew Timme in a similar style to how they played Hunter Dickinson, I do not see history repeating itself. Timme has proven to be too dominant and is finishing at a remarkably high rate. Timme dominated his matchup with the Mobleys and one of the best defensive bigs of the entire tournament (Evan) did little to halt his hot streak. If UCLA hopes to stand a chance, Juzang, Campbell and Jaquez will have to have an all time performance. Can they pull a 1985 style upset? With Suggs, Ayayi, Nembhard and Kispert defending along the perimeter, I do not think that UCLA's guards/perimeter attack can continue their hot streak. But, you never know with this NCAA tournament. 

Baylor vs. Houston

While Baylor has been shooting a bit better and played very well offensively against Arkansas, they had difficulty getting stops and containing the dribble penetration of Arkansas' athletic guards. While I do believe that the Bears will make adjustments and play a much better defensive game against Houston, I believe that Houston's team presents a problem. Baylor has not been elite on the defensive glass, and they will need to step up their game against Houston, who is the best offensive rebounding team left in the field. They thrive off of second chance points, as was proven against Oregon State in the last round. Can Dejon Jarreau contain Davion Mitchell and will this be enough to thwart Baylor's offensive attack? I do not believe that Houston will ultimately have enough to stop Baylor on the defensive side of the floor. Matthew Mayer will serve as a huge mismatch and create driving lanes for their guards. He will need to have a big game for Baylor to come out on top and likely face the Zags in the dream matchup everyone has been waiting for since the beginning.

Championship Game Prediction

Gonzaga vs. Baylor

I am going with the result of my bracket, though I acknowledge that it is not the likely outcome here. In terms of how they have been playing, Gonzaga is clearly the favorites and they have obliterated the field so far. No one has had an answer inside for Drew Timme and Gonzaga's guards (Suggs in particular) have played tough defense on the perimeter. Despite the defense, their offense has been such a well oiled machine that they simply outscore everyone. I anticipate that this will be a closer matchup than most would expect (given how the Zags have played). Baylor has been patiently waiting to play this team all year (after a canceled matchup earlier in the season). I anticipate that the experience of Mitchell will simply prove to be too much and he will get in Suggs' head. While this really doesn't matter for the Zags, because they have two other elite guards who can handle the ball (Nembhard & Ayayi), I anticipate that these players will have off shooting games against Baylor. Kispert has not been as effective in this tournament and Mayer might be able to matchup with him. Timme presents a huge problem inside for Baylor, but they can try to double the ball out of his hands and force the rest of the Zags into contested shots if their rotations are crisp enough. Look for this to be an absolute classic game. 

Photo Courtesy of yahoo.com via Andy Lyons, Getty Images 

NCAA Tournament Bracket Analysis (Part 4) - The Elite Eight

 

Round 3

West 

Gonzaga vs. USC

If USC shoots like they did against Oregon and Kansas, the Zags are in for their toughest test of the tournament, with the possible exception of Baylor. Length kills and USC has it at every position. While the Mobley brothers do tend to bite on shot fakes, I anticipate that the help defense on Drew Timme will stymie him a bit on the block. The only way that USC stands a chance is if they can shoot the ball from the perimeter. Evan Mobley has not made many strides on the offensive end, though USC should exploit his size mismatch on the block to try to get Timme in foul trouble. Unfortunately for them, the Zags can counter with Oumar Ballo and his 7'6 wingspan off the bench to bother the Mobleys, if necessary. Isaiah will need to step up this game in the two big lineup, as no one for Gonzaga has the size to match up with him. A difficulty that I foresee is the matchup defending either Ayayi or Kispert. With Eaddy likely to guard Suggs, one of Ayayi/Kispert will have an exploitable matchup. Their ability to execute on this will be the biggest key to the game. Importantly, USC forced Oregon to play at their tempo and the threat of their length made it difficult for Oregon to win on run outs. I anticipate that something similar will happen against Gonzaga, and that this will be one of the best games of the tournament. However, I do not believe that USC can keep up its hot shooting. The Zags ultimately may make more shots and edge them out.  

East

Michigan vs. UCLA

With an outstanding showing against Florida St, Michigan is the odds-on favorite to make it to the Final Four out of the East region. With that said, UCLA's gritty performance against Alabama showed that they are not just the Johnny Juzang show. Cody Riley, Tyger Campbell, and David Singleton had very efficient outings against Alabama, bringing their A games when Juzang fouled out. With that said, I do not anticipate that their magical run will continue. Hunter Dickinson will probably prove to be too much inside for them. The offense should run through him. Mike Smith might have some difficulty with Tyger Campbell, but the rest of the Wolverines should have some open looks. In particular, I anticipate that Eli Brooks will continue to perform well, and Franz Wagner could have a strong showing. Look for Hunter's interior dominance to open up the game for Michigan's perimeter shooters. If UCLA counters, Juzang will have to play like he did in the first three rounds and Jaquez's scoring punch will also prove to be important. I anticipate that Michigan will win, despite UCLA playing their best basketball down the stretch in this tournament. 

South

Baylor vs. Arkansas

This is probably the most difficult matchup of the round to predict. Baylor has not been shooting the ball well lately, and Jared Butler has struggled thus far in the tournament. While Arkansas has been sloppy with the ball at times, they play a loose brand of basketball and have the athletes/size to matchup with Baylor. Moses Moody could have a big game, and I do not know if Baylor's guards can contain him from the mid range or inside. Baylor will need Mark Vital to show up defensively on Justin Smith. If Arkansas handles the pressure and stays within striking distance (as they have in their 2nd half comebacks throughout the tournament), this game could come down to one possession at the end. With Butler struggling shooting the ball, Davion Mitchell will be that much more important on the offensive end. Matthew Mayer is a complete X factor in this game and he could be the most crucial piece absent Davion. 

Midwest

Houston vs. Oregon St.

Oregon St. keeps rolling and their size proved to be too much for Loyola Chicago, as was my concern. Late in the game, Loyola simply could not make the big shots to finish off their comeback. Oregon St. has continued to concede points late in tournament games, but Ethan Thompson and even Maurice Calloo have hit some big shots down the stretch. The key to this game will be Dejon Jarreau's ability to lock up Thompson, who has been one of the best players in the NCAA tournament. After defending Buddy Boeheim admirably, Jarreau is in for another tall task. His hip pointer injury on the second game in three days might play a role in this contest. I anticipate that Jarreau will be able to disrupt Thompson enough to stymie the Oregon St. offense, at least early on. Their ability to shut down Oregon St for the rest of the game will then depend on Houston's ability to stay out of foul trouble, as they have been undisciplined for stretches. In the Beavers' last contest, Williamson's foul trouble for Loyola enabled the Beavers to pull ahead on a big run. History could repeat itself again with Jarreau if Houston is not carefully managing its players' foul situations. The other key factor will be Houston's ability to offensive rebound. Oregon St. is a bigger team and this might prevent second chance opportunities by the Cougars. Ultimately, if Grimes and Sasser can carry their offensive momentum into this next contest, and the Houston bigs attack the offensive glass, Houston could finish this game on a late run. The margin for error is razor thin in this one and it could go either way. 

Photo Courtesy of si.com

NCAA Tournament Bracket Analysis (Part 3)

Round 3

West 

Gonzaga vs. Creighton

While my bracket was off, predicting that Ohio would meet Gonzaga in the Sweet Sixteen matchup, Creighton was always a strong threat. Importantly, the Blue Jays locked in on Jason Preston and limited Ohio. Creighton is only capable of challenging if Ballock has one of his lights out shooting performances (5 or more 3's). I anticipate that this game will be another blowout for Gonzaga. They simply have too much inside with Timme and I do not anticipate that Jefferson will be able to cause any problems for Kispert. Look for Gonzaga to once again cruise barring a lights out shooting performance from Creighton, similar to their game against Villanova earlier in the year. 

USC vs. Oregon

Oregon's game against Iowa was arguably the most impressive and eye opening game of the round (with the possible exception of Alabama). While USC won the first matchup and their length should cause some serious problems for Oregon, I anticipate that the Duarte/Richardson backcourt will simply be too much for Tahj Eaddy and USC. I do not believe that USC's three point shooting from Isaiah Mobley and co is sustainable, nor do I feel that Oregon will shoot as well from beyond the arc, due mostly to USC's length and pressure. If Oregon looks to push the pace, I believe that USC can keep up with them. However, I believe that the Ducks will simply shoot better from beyond the arc, which will give them the edge in this one. 

East

Michigan vs. Florida St.

After running through my pick, Colorado, in the previous round, I believe that Florida St is one of the most dangerous teams left on this side of the bracket, and a greater test than either Alabama or UCLA. You can't teach size, and Florida St. can simply throw big after big at Hunter Dickinson, possibly making his life as difficult as possible. Koprivica, Ngom, Gray, and Osborne form an extremely formidable front line. However, I think that the guard play will be the deciding factor in this contest; in particular, how well Mike Smith handles the length and size of Florida St. will be critical to the Michigan attack. Importantly, I believe that his defensive impact and ability to turn Florida St over could ultimately be the Seminoles' achilles heel. If Florida St handles the pressure and contests Michigan's shooters, they could easily come out of this one. However, I believe that Dickinson will be able to find open shooters and draw fouls at a high rate. I think that Michigan's backcourt is extremely underrated defensively and this will be the difference in this one. 

Alabama vs. UCLA

My bracket was also off with this contest, as I anticipated that Alabama would lose after suffering a cold shooting night in round 2 (vs. UConn I was projecting). Against Maryland, this could not have been further from the case, and the Tide rolled by Maryland, dominating the game from start to finish. The Tide is red hot from beyond the arc and an extremely difficult matchup for UCLA. While Abilene Christian was a tough contest for a Texas team missing a true point guard, Tyger Campbell handled the pressure with ease and ultimately more of the Bruins' shots fell. Against Alabama, UCLA will have to slow the game down or they are going to get run out of the gym. I anticipate that Alabama will win this game rather easily. Look for Jaden Shackelford and Jahvon Quinerly to continue their torrid pace from long range.  

South

Baylor vs. Villanova

What a matchup this will be! Never count the Villanova Wildcats out, as long as Jay Wright is at the helm, coaching and recruiting some of the toughest players in all of college basketball. They dominated North Texas in a way I did not expect and Baby Arch/Antoine have gotten up to speed remarkably quickly. However, beating North Texas and Winthrop is far different than the ball pressure they will see against Baylor. The two ways to beat the Wildcats all season have been with a dominant interior presence and with guards who turn you over. Davion Mitchell is one of the best on ball defenders in the country and I anticipate that he will have himself a game. If the Baby Arch/Antoine combo are strong with the ball and bring the Wildcats into their halfcourt sets, this game could actually be close. Villanova is shooting the ball better than it has all season, but they have not played with as potent a defense as Baylor. Much like the St. John's game, I anticipate that Baylor's defense will prove to be too much and lead to run outs. If Villanova shoots well, though, (unlike the St. John's game) they can hang with the Bears. This should be a fun one. 

Arkansas vs. Oral Roberts

These teams matched up previously and Justin Smith was way too much on the interior for Oral Roberts. Considering the fact that Oral Roberts faced two high majors without incredible size (EJ Liddell is only 6'7 and Colin Castleton is solid but not a traditional back to the basket big), I anticipate that Arkansas will be more of a struggle. While Justin Smith has similar size to Liddell, they also can counter with 7'3 Connor Vanover if they want to create a huge size mismatch. If Vanover draws much of the defensive attention, this would open up the game for Justin Smith inside. Importantly, Oral Roberts would have to keep up their torrid pace of three point shooting. Abmas and Obanor are hoping to continue their magical run, and I think they will play Arkansas tough, but may ultimately come up short due to a lack of size. Moody is also someone to watch out for in this contest. If he hits shots consistently, it could be a long night for Oral Roberts. Overall, I believe that this will be a closer game than their first contest, but I do not believe that Oral Roberts' magic will continue into the Elite Eight, though I would love to see it happen.

Midwest

Loyola Chicago vs. Oregon St.

I am going to stick with my bracket on this one, though I believe that Oregon St. will pose a huge challenge for the Ramblers. This is a game where I believe Oregon St. is going to look to push the pace, but it may simply come down to who can hit the most shots. Ethan Thompson has been great throughout this tournament. Look for Lucas Williamson to slow Thompson down. But, can Krutwig stay out of foul trouble twice against the Beavers' interior might in 7'1 Roman Silva and 6'10 Maurice Calloo? Calloo, in particular, was great against Oklahoma St. I think Oregon St. will learn the lessons from the Illinois tape and try to jump the ball screens, disrupting Loyola Chicago's slashers. However, I do think that the Ramblers will counter and connect on a higher percentage of their three point shots. If Krutwig does get into foul trouble, can Aher Uguak step up and provide some scoring punch? This should be a close one, but I will lean with my bracket pick in Loyola Chicago.

Houston vs. Syracuse

I may very well regret making this pick, but I have to go with my bracket over the hotter team in this one. Syracuse has been great from the floor, with Buddy Boeheim and Joseph Girard firing on all cylinders. And Houston shot the ball very poorly against Rutgers, with Sasser - in particular - struggling. I believe that the Syracuse zone is going to pose an issue for Houston early on, but I think they can counter this by crashing the glass and creating second chance opportunities at the rim. Houston is an excellent offensive rebounding team. Oddly, Culver struggled to finish inside against Syracuse's frontline, but I anticipate that Houston will come out even more ferocious on the glass. I also believe that this Cougars team will shoot a bit better from the floor than they did against Rutgers (they will have to if they hope to win). Importantly, recall that Syracuse nearly imploded against West Virginia late in the game trying to in bound the basketball. You can bet that Kelvin Sampson is going to apply pressure on Syracuse's guards. And Dejon Jarreau, who was severely limited against Rutgers with a hip pointer, should be a difference maker in this one with an additional week of rest. Can Houston shoot well enough to stick around with the Cuse? Quentin Grimes is going to have to carry his team on his back. This should be a very close game, unless Houston can't handle the zone; in which case, it will probably be a blowout in favor of Syracuse. 

Photo Courtesy of Detroit Free Press

NCAA Tournament Bracket Analysis (Part 2)

Round 2

West 

Gonzaga vs. Oklahoma

The Zags look like an unstoppable force and are again undefeated going into this one. I picked Missouri in my bracket due to the absence of Harmon, but Oklahoma once again proved just how resilient they are. There just isn't enough firepower here unless Reaves goes for 40 points on efficient shooting. Despite how outstanding Kruger is as a coach and the heart that his team displays, the Zags should win this rather easily.

Creighton vs. Ohio

While Creighton barely escaped UCSB when the Gauchos' tip in rimmed out, I do anticipate that they will give Ohio a game. I still believe that the threat of Preston will probably be too much, and Creighton has been sloppy at times. If Ballock can hit his open looks, Creighton should be extremely tough. Both are relatively small teams. I anticipate that Ohio will probably out-shoot Creighton, as the Blue Jays have shot poorly in recent outings. I expect this game to be close. 

Kansas vs. USC 

I am a bit concerned about my bracket predictions for this game, as I believe Kansas matches up very well with USC. Marcus Garrett may end up guarding Drew Peterson, who was excellent in USC's matchup with Drake. I expect this game to be a grind-it-out battle, as USC's length and perimeter defense has been phenomenal. Agbaji is going to have to have a spectacular performance for them to win this game. If USC is able to feed Evan Mobley inside, I believe he should physically overwhelm David McCormack on the interior. Even if McCormack plays sound interior defense, Isaiah Mobley should be there to follow up any misses. I think that USC's ability to dominate on the glass and contest Kansas' drives will be the difference maker. 

Iowa vs. Oregon 

From the get go, Oregon is at a huge disadvantage against Iowa because they won their VCU contest by forfeiture, due to covid-19 protocols. Every single year since the first four started, a first four team has won its second contest. This is further evidence for the significance of momentum. Because Iowa has a game under its belt already, they should be the looser team coming into this one and are at a significant advantage. In terms of the personnel matchup, Duarte could be extremely difficult for Iowa to contain, but I worry about Omoruyi getting into foul trouble trying to guard Garza. On the flip side, Garza will probably have trouble defending on the perimeter if Omoruyi is shooting well. Breakout freshman Keegan Murray will therefore play a significant role in the outcome of this one. I believe that this will be a very high scoring duel, where the first to 85 points wins it. Iowa will need Bohannon to continue his sweet shooting and for Wieskamp to step up in this one.

East

Michigan vs. LSU

This could be one of the most difficult matchups to predict in the entire second round and honestly is a bit of a coin flip in my opinion. LSU is red hot from the floor and Cameron Thomas can shoot the ball from the parking lot. Michigan typically fights hard defensively and I would expect Franz Wagner and co. to contest LSU. The absence of Livers will be felt in this game though. The biggest key for Michigan will be the play of Hunter Dickinson. He cannot foul out like he did against Texas Southern. Will Watford be able to matchup with him inside? Unless Mike Smith and the rest of Michigan's backcourt shoot lights out, the Dickinson/Watford matchup will likely be the determining factor. LSU's defense has looked much improved and Coach Wade has his team buying in.

Florida St. vs. Colorado 

Call me crazy, but I think that Colorado should win this one. I have always had concerns about Florida St's guard play in the tournament (which was evident against Georgia Tech in the ACC Tournament), and I believe that Colorado has a top 5 lead guard in McKinley Wright. Unless Florida St. and Colorado experience some serious mean reversion on their three point shooting after they hit 0% and 64% respectively in their first round contests, I do not see the Seminoles winning this one. Importantly, Jabari Walker emerged against Georgetown and his ability to stretch against Florida St's bigs will be absolutely pivotal. 

UCLA vs. Abilene Christian

My bracket was off on this one, as I had BYU beating Abilene in the 2nd round. Importantly, I made this bracket before news of Johnny Juzang's availability came to light (after he suffered what looked like a bad ankle sprain at the end of the Michigan St. play-in game). When Juzang was not scoring against BYU, BYU went on a tear and got back in the game. So, his play has been absolutely critical (and I didn't expect him to be close to full strength). I expect Juzang to continue his sweet shooting against Abilene Christian. After putting on one of the most impressive defensive clinics I have ever witnessed in the NCAA tournament - beating Texas shooting 29.9% from the field and 16.7% from 3 - I believe that Abilene will run out of steam. Even with a day between games, I do not know if they can carry over the same level of effort and intensity into this game. While one could argue they have all year, this Texas game was particularly exhausting for them. Playing another team with good size could prove too much, especially if they shoot the same way. I hope the underdog wins though. 

Alabama vs. Maryland

I also had this contest wrong in my bracket. I projected that UConn would emerge as a defensive stalwart and out-shoot Maryland, with Bouknight serving as the hero en route to an Alabama upset. UConn was atrocious from the free throw line, hitting 5-12 attempts and it appeared that Bouknight hoped the refs would bail him out on just about every drive. Maryland's D was sound throughout and I expect that trend to continue into the Alabama game. However, I believe that Maryland's shooting in the first half of the UConn game, which essentially gave them the lead, will not carry over against Alabama. Bama is much longer on the perimeter and I do not believe that they will have as many defensive lapses, leaving three point shooters wide open. This should be tightly contested and low scoring, but I expect Alabama to pull this one out. 

South

Baylor vs. Wisconsin

Jared Butler and Davion Mitchell did not have good games shooting the ball against Hartford. I expect them to turn it around against Wisconsin, which will counter with experienced guards Trice and Davison. With all the battles that Wisconsin has been in in the Big 10, I do not expect them to back down in this one. Matchup wise, this isn't an ideal matchup for Baylor, as Vital may have a difficult time guarding Potter and/or Rivers along the perimeter if they are hitting shots. With that said, I fully expect Baylor's guards to clamp down on Davison and Trice defensively and limit their productivity. Look for Baylor to bounce back from a good performance against Hartford, though it will probably be a tightly contested game.

Villanova vs. North Texas

This pick goes against my instincts here. Hamlet is playing with a huge chip on his shoulders and will provide a steadying presence against Villanova's guards. Can Moore contain him one on one? And if he does, will that open up the game for North Texas' three point shooters? Villanova left Winthrop's wings open in the first contest way too often and the Eagles were simply unable to knock down shots. North Texas shot 42.9% from 3 against Purdue. So, Villanova's guards will have to really clamp down defensively. Overall, I was impressed by Nova's defense against Winthrop and they spent a ton of effort trying to help down on DJ Burns. Zachary Simmons is excellent and I expect him to play well against Villanova. But, he should not command the same defensive attention as Nova placed on DJ Burns. Robinson Earl should be able to check him one on one. This will enable Nova's guards to focus more on three point shooters. On the offensive side, Nova needs to shoot better and play under control. Robinson Earl's post production will be critical here. If Antoine and Baby Arch can offer anything, Nova should win it. I expect this contest to be within 3 points most of the way, unless North Texas builds a large lead.

Arkansas vs. Texas Tech 

Texas Tech looked great in their first matchup against Utah St. Beard has his team playing well at the right time of year once again. With that said, I believe that Coach Musselman will have Arkansas playing with more energy, as they basically sleepwalked to a victory against Colgate. I anticipate that Connor Vanover will play a larger role and present mismatch problems for Tech. I anticipate that the defense of Arkansas' guards will be far more impactful than what Tech experienced against Utah St. Moses Moody should have a much more inspired contest against Tech and Notae will be the X factor for them. 

Florida vs. Oral Roberts

I whiffed on both of these matchups in my bracket. I anticipate that Florida's speed and athleticism will be too much for Oral Roberts' guards in transition. Scottie Lewis is an elite perimeter defender, and I believe he will do a much better job on Abmas, Obanor or whoever he is tasked with guarding. Tre Mann was a revelation against Virginia Tech and I expect him to continue his torrid pace.

Midwest

Illinois vs. Loyola Chicago

I am not changing any picks from my bracket results, so I will provide my initial logic here (from when I filled out my bracket). While I don't believe that there is a single player in college basketball that can match Kofi Cockburn physically, I believe that Cameron Krutwig has the "know how" to cause Illinois problems. I anticipate that Krutwig will operate from the high post and feed interior cutters for much of this game. If he is slacked on, Krutwig can hit balanced jumpers. This should draw Cockburn out of the paint and enable Loyola's guards to have a cutting lane. On the defensive end, I believe that Loyola is one of the toughest defenses in the country and they are extremely fundamentally sound. I believe that Krutwig will try to defend without fouling. If Kofi gets him in foul trouble, then Jacob Hutson will play a much bigger role. With that said, I believe that Uguak and Williamson should be able to matchup with Frazier and Ayo. If they take Illinois' guards out of rhythm and Kofi gets into early foul trouble, this could spell danger zone for the Illini. Look for this to be a close one due to Loyola's toughness and perimeter shooting. They are a nightmare draw in round 2.  

Oklahoma St. vs. Oregon St. 

I missed out on picking Oregon St. vs. Tennessee, believing that they would not be able to match up with Tennessee's perimeter defense. Jarod Lucas and Ethan Thompson have been a revelation to close the season and 7'1 center Roman Silva could present a matchup nightmare for Oklahoma St. and Cade Cunningham. I anticipate that Kalib Boone will be able to contain Silva inside and Cade's length should disrupt Oregon St. shooters. The Cowboys, and Isaac Likekele in particular, need to play under control, or they will enable Oregon St. to get out in transition. I anticipate that Oklahoma St.'s perimeter defense will prove to be a bad matchup for Oregon St. USC has exceptional length and they split with Oregon St. during the regular season, so I anticipate that this will be a very close matchup.  

West Virginia vs. Syracuse

Buddy Boeheim and Cuse represent a huge matchup problem for every team they face and they are clicking at exactly the right time. Boeheim shot 7-10 from three and carried his team to a victory. Having seen Cunningham a couple of times this season, I anticipate that WVU will do what they can to slow Buddy down. I believe a combination of defenders could be effective, and Miles McBride or Emmitt Matthews will have a shot to disrupt him. Culver inside should prove to be too much for the Cuse and his rim protecting will be essential if they are to win this game. Look for Sherman and McNeil to provide a nice offensive 1-2 bunch.  

Houston vs. Rutgers

While I do not believe that Rutgers will lay down in this game, Houston is simply the more physical team defensively. With Ron Harper Jr. in a bit of a shooting slump, I anticipate that Houston will lock in defensively, particularly with Jarreau (though he is going to be somewhat limited due to a hip injury). With Jarreau a bit limited, I anticipate that Rutgers can make this more of a game, but I like Grimes and Sasser to hit their open shots. I believe that Houston can match Rutgers' pace and if this game becomes a running match, it favors the Cougars. Myles Johnson's interior D will be critical for Rutger's chances.  

Image Courtesy of loyolaramblers.com

NCAA Tournament Bracket Analysis

Round 1

West 

Gonzaga vs. Norfolk St. 

While Norfolk St. showed that they could play an up tempo game, they nearly squandered a 19 point first half lead and looked pretty lost once Appalachian St. started hitting shots. The Zags have been the best team all year and are scoring over 90 points per contest. This will not be close.

Oklahoma vs. Missouri

The absence of Harmon due to covid protocols is devastating for a team that was already reeling down the stretch. Look for Pinson and Smith to capitalize. Tilmon is a bad matchup for Manek. Unless Austin Reaves can carry the load himself, the Sooners should be in for a long night. Harmon is that important, creating shots for his teammates.

Creighton vs. UC Santa Barbara

This is a tempting upset to pick. UC Santa Barbara has a ton of talent and Miles Norris, who can stretch at the 4/5 slot. This is intriguing because Creighton is similarly versatile with Mahoney able to step out. The matchup to watch will be Jaquori McLaughlin vs. Marcus Zegarowski. While they have been slumping lately (see Georgetown's Big East Final blowout) and the McDermott debacle seemed to stymy them - at least temporarily - this could be the last hurrah for some of these seniors (unless they opt to return again). I imagine that this squad will have a renewed sense of urgency, especially considering the fact that they haven't played near their potential level. UC Santa Barbara is an extremely dangerous team, and the outcome will come down to who can shoot the ball better. I give that edge to Creighton

Virginia vs. Ohio

This is a tough matchup to get a handle on. Having watched Ohio give Illinois a run for their money early in the year, I realize that Ohio can knock off just about anyone. Virginia is also not the same team on the defensive end that we have come to expect them to be.. Throw in a covid pause and additional player uncertainty and this really is a tough circumstance: UVA has one day to prepare. I think Jason Preston has something to prove and will get where he wants to go on the basketball court.

USC vs. Drake

This is a difficult matchup to predict. Drake is an 11th seed that could use their Wichita St. win as momentum. While they had a very bad first half shooting the ball, they made adjustments in the second half and were shooting well. Brodie was not able to handle Udeze for most of the game yesterday. Now swap Udeze with Evan Mobley, and you have a problem. If Drake controls the tempo and speeds USC up, they should be able to take advantage of their speed. I expect Mobley to just be too much for them.

Kansas vs. Eastern Washington

Eastern Washington would have to hit a ton of threes to keep this matchup close. While it is difficult to get a feel for this matchup, considering the fact that Wilson is out with covid, Kansas is getting McCormick back and that should be enough to challenge Groves on the glass and secure a victory. Agbaji will need to carry a heavy scoring load for his team to advance. I think they will be able to muster a first round victory. But, that is where it ends.

Oregon vs. VCU

This matchup is so tough because Oregon has to defend Bones Hyland, which is no small task. I expect Duarte to stand out in this one and overcome havoc's force.

Iowa vs. Grand Canyon

While this is a better matchup than most are anticipating, Iowa just has more weapons along the perimeter. I expect Wieskamp to have a huge game and Garza to stand toe to toe with Grand Canyon's twin towers in Asbjorn Midtgaard and Alessandro Lever. 

East

Michigan vs. Texas Southern

Even without Livers, Michigan just has too much firepower. While Texas Southern performed valiantly yesterday, their run stops here. Michigan is just too big inside and can defend the perimeter. 

LSU vs. St. Bonaventure 

This is a really tricky matchup, given how well St. Bonaventure's guards have played, pummeling VCU in the A10 Final. The Bonnies have a plethora of backcourt weapons, but LSU is countering with a legitimate NBA prospect, Cam Thomas. While the shot selection is not always great, he can heat up in a hurry and I don't think anyone in this tournament can shut him down for long. For that reason, I give LSU the slight edge.

Colorado vs. Georgetown

Don't get me wrong. I like Georgetown. But, Colorado has just been more consistent throughout the season and McKinley Wright is a man on a mission. After winning the Big East tournament, I think it is possible that Georgetown comes out a bit flat and Colorado jumps out to an early lead. Blair will likely be the difference maker in this one. I think that Wright will simply be too difficult to stop. 

Florida St. vs. UNC Greensboro

Size, size, and more size. Florida St. is just too big to lose to UNC Greensboro in my opinion. Their frontcourt defends hard and I anticipate that they will try to exploit mismatches everywhere. I imagine the Seminoles will play off Isaiah Miller and dare him to shoot from the perimeter. Once again, Florida St. simply presents too much of a mismatch.

BYU vs. UCLA

Throughout most of the game yesterday and beforehand, I anticipated that Michigan St. would advance. Now, BYU secures a matchup with a wounded UCLA, as Johnny Juzang was hurt at the 44-second mark in overtime. Though I believe that BYU is extremely vulnerable, I anticipate that UCLA will not have the depth to matchup with them. Matt Haarms presents a huge size mismatch in the paint. I think UCLA runs out of steam here. 

Texas vs. Abilene Christian

This is a matchup that I studied rather thoroughly, after really liking what I saw in the Southland Conference Tournament Finale. Texas has size, they play tough, and they are extremely athletic. However, they do not have a true point guard and are sometimes sloppy with the ball. This could spell disaster against an Abilene Christian team that specializes in turning teams over. Texas lost to Oklahoma early in the year, and they do not always fully utilize their size to dominate offensively. Look for Abilene Christian to take advantage of this. If they can turn Texas over and hit some shots, they stand a good chance. Importantly, ACU needs Kolton Kohl to rim protect against Texas' athletic weapons.   

Connecticut vs. Maryland

This is an awfully difficult matchup to call. Maryland plays positionless basketball, but their guards are sometimes prone to poor shot selection. UConn is a team that has not performed as well as they possibly can, when considering their talent level. I expect Bouknight to have a big performance on the biggest stage. RJ Cole is expected to clear concussion protocol and play. This should be a fun one.

Alabama vs. Iona

Bama simply has too many weapons and Herb Jones can lock anyone on Iona up on the defensive end. Look for a variety of Alabama players to score in their opening round contest. Congrats to Pitino for making it here.

South

Baylor vs. Hartford

While Traci Carter can turn you over at a high rate, Baylor once had the best team defense in all of college basketball. Hopefully they take a step closer to that path they were on before their covid pause. Hartford simply does not have the firepower to compete with an elite squad like Baylor.

North Carolina vs. Wisconsin

I don't yet trust the young guards for North Carolina, and I believe Wisconsin has underwhelmed all year. However, when a tournament win is on the line, who will step up? My mind is telling me that UNC is the obvious choice because their size should dominate. Potter and Reuvers struggled to contain more physically imposing presences inside in Big 10 play, so this matchup represents another case where they should struggle.

Villanova vs. Winthrop

While Winthrop is a very good team that can push the pace and tends to take really good shots, I like how Nova matches up with the Eagles. Robinson Earl should be able to contain DJ Burns inside and Winthrop does not possess a disruptive lead guard like Posh Alexander, who really bothered Villanova and forced them into a poor rhythm.

Purdue vs. North Texas

This is another matchup that I looked at very closely. Coach McCasland did a remarkable job double teaming Charles Bassey and getting the ball out of his hands in the CUSA Final. While Trevion Williams is a better passer than Bassey, I imagine that North Texas can use the same disruptive defense to force the ball out of Williams' hands. In the backcourt, look for Jaden Ivey to continue to perform valiantly. In order to win, Javion Hamlet will have to step up and hit shots. I believe they will pull this upset because of their coach's gameplanning, Hamlet's drive to win, and Purdue's struggles holding onto the ball at times. 

Texas Tech vs. Utah St.

While Texas Tech doesn't have anyone who can match-up with Neemias Queta, they can double him and force him to make quick decisions.  I anticipate that McClung will have a very good game and TTU should escape with the win.

Arkansas vs. Colgate 

I am not buying the hype of this matchup. Arkansas' offense is extremely free flowing and they have an NBA level talent in Moses Moody. Colgate does not have the interior athletes to rim protect against Arkansas' elite athleticism. To win, Colgate will have to shoot lights out. I don't think that will happen against Arkansas' length.

Florida vs. Virginia Tech

Florida is going to want to get out there and start running. Unfortunately for them, Virginia Tech has an extremely tough squad this year, and they should be able to compete in transition and establish their own tempo throughout the game. Look for Aluma to present a huge mismatch inside.

Ohio St.  vs. Oral Roberts  

Max Abmas and Kevin Obanor's scoring prowess should challenge Ohio St, but I would be shocked if they pulled this one off. Their defense would have to look a lot better than it is. Washington is just too tough. 

Midwest

Illinois vs. Drexel 

This is a huge size mismatch inside with TJ Bickerstaff or James Butler facing off against Kofi Cockburn. Look for Ayo to really take over this game as well.

Loyola Chicago vs. Georgia Tech

While we were all looking forward to this matchup, the announcement that Moses Wright will be out due to covid protocol all but tanks Tech's chances. Krutwig will likely be able to get anything he wants inside. It will be interesting to see how Loyola defends Jose Alvarado. Look for Loyola's D to clamp down and for them to connect from beyond the arc on the other side of the floor.

Tennessee vs. Oregon St. 

Tennessee is just too stout of a defensive squad to struggle with a sweet shooting Oregon St. team that streaked through its conference tournament to earn the automatic birth. 

Oklahoma St. vs. Liberty

This is a strong upset possibility. If Liberty can shoot lights out, they stand a chance against OK St. McGhee is the catalyst for Liberty and on the alternative side, Cade is looking to solidify his number 1 draft slot.

San Diego St. vs. Syracuse

While Buddy Boeheim has been hot recently, San Diego St. simply has so many weapons. Gomez and Mitchell can hurt you from beyond the arc. Jordan Schakel is too much of a defensive presence. 

West Virginia vs. Morehead St.

Morehead St. has the highest TO Rate of any team left in the tournament. If West Virginia can play sound defense and create points off turnovers, WVU could advance pretty easily. If Johni Broome gets Culver into foul trouble, Morehead St. stands a chance.

Clemson vs. Rutgers

Rutgers is a team that I have watched extensively and I like their grit and fight. If they can find their shooting strokes, especially Ron Harper Jr., Clemson could be in for a long night.

Houston vs. Cleveland St. 

Grimes and Sasser are simply too dangerous to lose to Cleveland St. I would not be surprised if this Cleveland St. team competes and Torrey Patton has himself a game. With that said, I would be shocked if Cleveland St. advanced here. Houston's D is too difficult, and their guard play is phenomenal. 

Image Courtesy of crescentcitysports.com

One And Done? The Case for Jaden Ivey's Emergence Ahead of the NCAA Tournament

Purdue's standout freshman Jaden Ivey opting into the 2021 draft? I know what you are thinking. I must be crazy and/or getting ahead of myself. After all, on the surface, the 6'4 guard is averaging a mere 10.5ppg this season, connecting on a paltry 24.7% of his 4 three point attempts per game. These numbers do not scream NBA draft prospect by any stretch of the imagination. When you dig a little deeper, however, it becomes clear that Ivey will be an NBA draft prospect the second he opts in. 

In terms of his background, Jaden grew up in South Bend, Indiana. His mother is the Notre Dame women's basketball coach, following her time spent in the WNBA. So Jaden has basketball in his family. In high school, he played for La Lumiere Prep - one of the best programs in the country - and stood out, shooting 40% from 3 and 43.1% on the Nike EYBL circuit in 2018. 

Flash forward to today: Ivey has emerged as the perfect backcourt complement to Trevion Williams, helping to elevate Purdue to a 4 seed in the NCAA tournament. While the rest of Purdue's freshman class has performed valiantly throughout the season, Ivey has the highest upside of any freshman in the Big Ten conference. 

What separates Jaden from the pack is his elite burst and finishing ability, coupled with his emerging floor game. When taken in concert, they portend a bright NBA future at the lead guard slot. The most evident strength that will enable him to translate his game to the highest level is his ability to get to the rim. While Ivey initially was a bit out of control attacking the basket early in the season (and still, to some extent, has his moments), his decision making driving to the basket has grown by leaps and bounds over the course of the 2020-21 season. While his handle is serviceable at this stage, he must continue to refine his ball control for the next level, as this will enable him to slow the game down. In particular, he should continue to perfect his stop and go hesitation moves, which are already very impressive. Importantly, Ivey's first step is one of the best in the Big Ten. He is explosive off the dribble, and his handle is serviceable enough to get him to the spots he wants on the floor. On the initial attack, he easily gains an advantage over defenders at this level, based purely on his explosiveness. 

After blowing by his man, Ivey often meets the secondary help defender at the rim, where he is able to draw contact at a high rate. His 5 fouls drawn per 40 minutes ranks 10th in the Big Ten conference this year. Ivey gains such an advantage because of his elite hangtime - when you watch him, it feels like he is effortlessly gliding in the air. Ivey loves reverse layups in particular, hanging in the air and often finishing through contact. This strategy will prove to be particularly effective against NBA shot blockers, utilizing the rim as a shield. In terms of his efficiency, Ivey is connecting on 50.9% of his 2pt attempts, which is comparable to Ayo on a percentage basis (without accounting for usage). Given the degree of difficulty on many of his hanging layups, this percentage is actually favorable in my eyes. 

As a result, Jaden is particularly deadly out in transition. He often secures the loose defensive rebound, before pushing it ahead for an easy basket or foul. 

In the halfcourt, Ivey's understanding of the game off the ball has improved as this season has progressed. 

When it comes to his outside shooting, Jaden will have to considerably improve his proficiency from beyond the arc if he ever hopes to play minutes in the NBA. As it stands today, he is shooting a paltry 24.7% from behind the three point line. He does not get much lift on his jumper. If he can refine this element of his game - in the offseason - this would help him to maximize his considerable potential. Impressively, Ivey is still getting to the rim with defenses often slacking off of him. 

  

In terms of his floor game, Jaden Ivey is a much better playmaker than the 2.0apg basic stat indicates. As his game has developed in conference play, his floor game has grown, and he shows considerable potential in the pick and roll. 

His in-conference assist rate was 20th best in the Big Ten this season and he has improved as the season has gone along. His two-man game with Trevion Williams is especially dynamic, and Ivey is gifted enough to thread the needle inside for some difficult feeds to his favorite roll man. 

When slashing to the rim, Ivey is unselfish with the ball and will kick it out to open shooters on the wings as well. Ivey sees the floor a lot better than his statistics indicate. 

With more responsibility in the NCAA tournament, given the 43 minutes he played against Ohio St in the Big Ten Tournament (up from the 15.5 mpg he averaged the first 10 games of the year), Ivey will have a chance to demonstrate his excellent vision and emerging skillset. As he has received consistent minutes (instead of being subbed out for freshman mistakes, as he was in the first 10 games), Ivey's offense and confidence has reached another level, culminating in his 19 point outburst against Ohio St in the Big Ten Tournament. He is averaging 16.6ppg over his last five games, hoping to carry this momentum into the NCAA tournament. If Ivey can continue his hot shooting in the NCAA tournament, hitting 40%+ from 3 as he did in his last game, he should be in the NBA draft conversation. 

While most believe that the three point shot is now a prerequisite for a guard entering the NBA, this was not always the case and many NBA guards developed their shots in the league. For example, after a strong tournament run alongside Greg Oden, Mike Conley was a one and done drafted at number 4 overall (in the 2007 draft), and has largely lived up to expectations. At the college level, Conley connected on just 30% of his 3 pt attempts as a freshman. While by no means are they comparable as players (Conley was head and shoulders above Ivey as a playmaker, yet lacks Ivey's explosive hangtime), this example only serves to underscore that players can be drafted and improve their shooting ability at the NBA level. 

Another reason why I believe that Ivey is best suited to develop in the G League vs. college is due to spacing. While Coach Matt Painter has done an excellent job of manufacturing iso plays for Ivey and not completely clogging the lane by placing Williams and Edey in at the same time, Ivey's pro development as a slasher and playmaker would be better served in a pro system where his strengths are accentuated. Spacing is much different in the NBA, and with the focus on freedom of motion, Ivey is the kind of athlete whose floor game would improve significantly as a pro vs. college. While it could be argued that returning to Purdue would enable Ivey to work on other elements of his game (such as three point shooting), it would be easier for Ivey to develop his pick and roll decision making within the parameters of the pro game. Additionally, NBA pro teams' developmental expectations are raised with every passing year spent at the collegiate level.    

On the defensive side of the ball, Ivey utilizes his elite athleticism and physical tools to pester his opponents. Ivey's good length and lateral quickness enable him to stay in front of most players. And, due to his quick leaping ability and nice second jump, Ivey is dynamic making plays as a help defender. This is supported by his 3.58% Blocks % according to kenpom.com, which ranks ahead of fellow NBA prospect Franz Wagner, for context. 

While Ivey was occasionally late closing out on shooters early in the year, he has definitely been more competitive in this respect as the season has gone on. In terms of his pick and roll defensive potential, Ivey is constantly fighting through screens at the collegiate level. He does a nice job of competing and playing up on shooters when the pick is set. Overall, due to his length and athleticism, he should be able to guard at least two positions at the next level.   

All in all, Jaden Ivey is a good NBA prospect who could capitalize on an excellent NCAA tournament and opt to develop his pick and roll fundamentals in the G League (upon entering the 2021 draft). While he probably will stay another year or two at Purdue, it will be interesting to track his progress in the NCAA tournament. If he has a few breakout performances against Javion Hamlet and North Texas, as well as against Villanova and/or Baylor, this could boost his stock considerably. Keep an eye on his developing floor game in the NCAA tournament. 

Image Courtesy of purduesports.com; Video Courtesy of Big Ten+ and ESPN

Blogging Through the NCCAA D2 Tournament: Players of Note

In this segment, I review the players who caught my eye throughout the event, with a focus on how they can further develop their games. While these are not NBA or high level pro players, it is still interesting to track how their skillsets develop over time.  

Coby Jones, Johnson (TN) - The MOP of the NCCAA D2 tournament was certainly deserving of this award, as he was the most complete player at this event. This Knox News piece was certainly prescient, as Jones led his Johnson (TN) team to a title. In terms of his strengths, Coby Jones is a 6'3 combo guard with pro level strength and a complete game. Jones transferred from the University of the Cumberlands, where he played football. After getting into basketball shape, Jones has proven to be the difference maker at the NCCAA D2 level. Offensively, Coby is a solid three point shooter when he has his feet set, sporting good lift on his jumper. When he is off, it is typically because he rushed his shot. He can rise up for a jumper from the mid range or from the free throw line in as well. He has good enough balance and squares himself to the basket when shooting fadeaway jumpers. In addition, Jones is dynamic creating for himself off the dribble - utilizing shot fakes and hesitation moves - while sporting a solid first step and finishing with great hangtime. Given his solid strength profile, Jones finishes well through contact at the rim. He is also probably the best rebounding guard at this event, though Malik Martin is also in that conversation. Coby facilitates for his teammates off the dribble and frequently finds open teammates inside or ahead in transition. He has active hands on the defensive end, and moves his feet well laterally. He can block shots as well and is a good vertical athlete. In terms of production, Jones scored 25 points in the first half to build Johnson (TN)'s lead against Arlington Baptist in the final. They never looked back. It will be intriguing to see if senior Coby Jones attempts to pursue some level of professional basketball (perhaps the ECBL). He definitely has a shot.       

Tra Mallard, Arlington Baptist - Arlington Baptist's 6'1 sophomore combo guard (alternative universe's version of teammate Trey Ballard) is a complete scorer and probably the second best player at this event. Mallard possesses a very quick first step (a bit quicker than Ballard's) and he does a better job finishing through contact. He has excellent body control and is a really good athlete overall. At a higher level, Mallard's game will translate because he is able to utilize the threat of his drive to facilitate for his teammates. He readily feeds the ball inside and is willing to kick it back out. In terms of his perimeter shooting, Mallard can fill it up in a hurry and he was probably the best pure scorer at this event - he was also extremely clutch. Against Randall, Mallard connected on the game tying three pointer off of one leg to bring the game to overtime. He can score on three levels and is effective from the midrange. While he is a bit of a rhythm scorer, Tra is capable shooting off of high ball screens or pin downs. Defensively, Mallard has great hands and some of the best lateral quickness at this event. He also is able to get in passing lanes, breaking ahead for easy layups. 

Brent Clark, Randall University - The 6'2 dynamo combo guard was extremely effective in the second game of the tournament, getting to the rim with his quick first step and finishing over bigger opponents. Clark possesses good body control and is dynamic attacking the basket. He was arguably the best finisher at this event and really kept his team in the game. Clark is able to keep defenses honest from beyond the arc, but had an off shooting game against Cavalry. He must continue to refine his three point shooting stroke in order to take his game to the next level. While his first step enables him to get by most at this level, Clark could stand to add some hesitation dribbles and slow the game down. In terms of facilitating, Clark is not a traditional lead guard, but he is an unselfish player who passes to open teammates. A critical part of his development will be improving as a pick and roll player, as he already possesses the ball control and quickness to be an effective lead guard. On the defensive end, Clark is very dynamic and his timely steals kept Randall in the game throughout this tournament. He possesses good lateral quickness and awareness. Overall, Clark was one of the better players at this event. If he transitions to the point guard position and continues to refine the balance on his jumper, he can have a future at a higher level.  

Trey Ballard, Arlington Baptist - This 6'0 freshman guard was one of the better breakout players at the event, and he hit some impressive contested shots throughout. In the first contest against Grace Christian, in particular, Ballard scorched the nets for 34 points on 13-16 shooting (5-7 from 3). He hit a variety of shots off the dribble and has deep range. He also demonstrated a good nose for the ball, rebounding well and competing for loose balls. Ballard also possesses one of the more impressive handles at this event and can score on three levels. When he is overplayed from the three point line, Ballard attacks the paint and possesses the quickness and concentration to get to the rim and score. He is crafty around the basket, and can stop on a dime and raise up in the midrange as well. Ballard must work to become a better facilitator, as the game continues to slow down for him. Defensively, he possesses good quickness, and has the best hands at this event sans Brent Clark.  

Jordan White, Manhattan Christian - While unfortunately I did not see his game tying shot (to send the game to a second OT) from three quarters court on Sportscenter, White was one of the most impressive players at this event. While he could still stand to tighten his handle a bit, he is effective driving the ball at the NCCAA D2 level, getting in the lane and creating problems for defenders. When he gets there, he fully embraces contact and has good enough body control to finish. In the second contest on a short turnaround after the 2OT game, White understandably was a bit winded. He still was effective running the show for his team and did a nice job of involving his teammates both along the perimeter and off the dribble. He drew fouls attacking the basket as well. Despite his height at 6'1, White is a strong, aggressive guard with a nose for the ball. He often corrals rebounds against must bigger players. Defensively, Jordan White is an active player. While his lateral mobility is not elite for a higher level of play, White works hard and has very good hands. Overall, Jordan White is a gritty, tough guard with a penchant for making winning plays.

Braydon Unruh, Calvary - Unruh is a 6'1 guard who stood out in the two games his team played in the NCCAA D2 tournament. In particular, he scorched the nets against Grace Christian, to the tune of 37 points on 13-23 shooting (7-13 from beyond the arc). In this contest, Unruh displayed excellent form and a quick release on his shot. Coming off of screens, he only needed a little bit of daylight, and he did a remarkable job appropriately squaring his body to the basket when he was not properly aligned. His range definitely stood out at this level, as many of his shots came from beyond NBA range. Unruh does a nice job of utilizing ball screens to free himself, though he is effective shooting both off the catch and off the dribble. When he was overplayed, Unruh shot faked and drove past his man for an often uncontested layup. At a higher level of play, he will need to develop and practice finishing through contact, as he was often met with limited resistance on the backline against NCCAA D2 defenders. Additionally, Unruh also flashed a promising 'in between' game, connecting on balanced midrange jumpers off the dribble. So, he can score on three levels against NCCAA D2 competition and would probably be effective scoring on two levels against higher competition. On the defensive end, despite his smaller size, Unruh competed and was scrappy helping down in the post. He needs to improve his reaction timing on closeouts though.  

Others Deserving Mention:

Malik Martin, Randall University - The Midland University transfer is a strong wing with excellent body control, capable of attacking the basket and finishing through contact. Martin is a really good athlete and had some hanging finishes in the contests that I witnessed. He is a physically tough player who must continue to refine his perimeter shooting. On the defensive end, Martin was an effective physical presence. He also rebounded the ball very well. 

Jordan Marshall, Randall University - The NCCAA D2 POY performed admirably throughout most of the NCCAA D2 tournament. He is currently a 6'7 post with an ability to step out and hit the three. He doesn't need a lot of space to shoot it and has a really nice form on his jumper. Marshall is a soft touch shooter who could develop into a specialist down the road if he slims down and works to improve his lateral quickness. Marshall is a physical rebounding presence, who collected several critical offensive rebounds in the overtime loss to Arlington Baptist in the semis. With that said, Marshall's inability to play effective post defense against Arlington's more agile forward, Da'vione Stafford, enabled Arlington Baptist to upset top seeded Randall. At a higher level of play, Marshall will need to develop on the defensive end, particularly with regard to his lateral foot speed, which has rendered him as a traditional tweener without the rim protecting prowess to compensate for the lack of size. Marshall displayed quick hands throughout the tournament, but has a tendency to reach when he does not secure the offensive rebound. With a focus on improving his body and defense, Marshall could play at a higher level. 

Spencer Grant, Grace Christian - The 6'6 wing/forward is a player who could improve by leaps and bounds if he continues to refine his shooting stroke. While he was effective in the first contest against Arlington Baptist shooting from beyond the arc, Grant came back down to earth in the final few contests. He must continue to work on his balance. In terms of his play attacking the basket, while his first step is not particularly explosive, Grant is crafty going to the rim and he sports a nice Euro step. He finishes through contact and is aggressive on the glass. Defensively, is where Grant could grow by leaps and bounds. He was already one of the best shot blockers at this event and did a nice job recovering on the backline. He could be a little quicker on closeouts, but if he continues to work on his burst and improves a bit laterally, he could transform into a defensive force next year at the NCCAA D2 level.  

Jouvens Hyacinthe, Kansas Christian - Hyacinthe is a strong, 5'9 guard, who kept his Kansas Christian team in the game throughout the tournament. He is physically developed and is best finishing through contact at the rim. He is capable pulling up from the mid range or from beyond the arc. He must continue to expand his outside shooting and shorten his release. Hyacinthe is a willing passer, and is an exceptional rebounder for his size. He has a great nose for the ball. On the defensive end, Hyacinthe is competitive and has good hands, but would struggle to defend bigger players at a higher level, as they would shoot over the top of him.  

Da'vione Stafford, Arlington Baptist - The 6'5 forward has quick feet and some nice interior moves. He finishes well around the basket and is comfortable shooting out to the free throw line extended. Stafford dominated against Randall, connecting on a remarkably efficient 13-14 shots and drawing fouls on Randall's key bigs. He must continue to refine his shooting form, as his shot is a bit deliberate out in front (which makes it easier to block). But, Stafford is a really good athlete who can finish with the best of them. He should look to add to his frame in the offseason. 

Rasaad Pettis, Southeastern Baptist - Pettis is an extremely aggressive slasher, whose second contest against Manhattan Christian was certainly notable. He attacked the rim with reckless abandon and finished strong. He has quick hands defensively. He does a nice job of initiating contact. Pettis was aggressive both chasing down loose balls (at 6'1) and athletic enough to corral loose rebounds amongst the trees. Just a sophomore, Pettis has plenty of room to grow as a player - particularly improving his proficiency from beyond the arc.  

Image Courtesy of Knox News; Video Courtesy of NCCAA D2