Round 1
West
Gonzaga vs. Norfolk St.
While Norfolk St. showed that they could play an up tempo game, they nearly squandered a 19 point first half lead and looked pretty lost once Appalachian St. started hitting shots. The Zags have been the best team all year and are scoring over 90 points per contest. This will not be close.
Oklahoma vs. Missouri
The absence of Harmon due to covid protocols is devastating for a team that was already reeling down the stretch. Look for Pinson and Smith to capitalize. Tilmon is a bad matchup for Manek. Unless Austin Reaves can carry the load himself, the Sooners should be in for a long night. Harmon is that important, creating shots for his teammates.
Creighton vs. UC Santa Barbara
This is a tempting upset to pick. UC Santa Barbara has a ton of talent and Miles Norris, who can stretch at the 4/5 slot. This is intriguing because Creighton is similarly versatile with Mahoney able to step out. The matchup to watch will be Jaquori McLaughlin vs. Marcus Zegarowski. While they have been slumping lately (see Georgetown's Big East Final blowout) and the McDermott debacle seemed to stymy them - at least temporarily - this could be the last hurrah for some of these seniors (unless they opt to return again). I imagine that this squad will have a renewed sense of urgency, especially considering the fact that they haven't played near their potential level. UC Santa Barbara is an extremely dangerous team, and the outcome will come down to who can shoot the ball better. I give that edge to Creighton
Virginia vs. Ohio
This is a tough matchup to get a handle on. Having watched Ohio give Illinois a run for their money early in the year, I realize that Ohio can knock off just about anyone. Virginia is also not the same team on the defensive end that we have come to expect them to be.. Throw in a covid pause and additional player uncertainty and this really is a tough circumstance: UVA has one day to prepare. I think Jason Preston has something to prove and will get where he wants to go on the basketball court.
USC vs. Drake
This is a difficult matchup to predict. Drake is an 11th seed that could use their Wichita St. win as momentum. While they had a very bad first half shooting the ball, they made adjustments in the second half and were shooting well. Brodie was not able to handle Udeze for most of the game yesterday. Now swap Udeze with Evan Mobley, and you have a problem. If Drake controls the tempo and speeds USC up, they should be able to take advantage of their speed. I expect Mobley to just be too much for them.
Kansas vs. Eastern Washington
Eastern Washington would have to hit a ton of threes to keep this matchup close. While it is difficult to get a feel for this matchup, considering the fact that Wilson is out with covid, Kansas is getting McCormick back and that should be enough to challenge Groves on the glass and secure a victory. Agbaji will need to carry a heavy scoring load for his team to advance. I think they will be able to muster a first round victory. But, that is where it ends.
Oregon vs. VCU
This matchup is so tough because Oregon has to defend Bones Hyland, which is no small task. I expect Duarte to stand out in this one and overcome havoc's force.
Iowa vs. Grand Canyon
While this is a better matchup than most are anticipating, Iowa just has more weapons along the perimeter. I expect Wieskamp to have a huge game and Garza to stand toe to toe with Grand Canyon's twin towers in Asbjorn Midtgaard and Alessandro Lever.
East
Michigan vs. Texas Southern
Even without Livers, Michigan just has too much firepower. While Texas Southern performed valiantly yesterday, their run stops here. Michigan is just too big inside and can defend the perimeter.
LSU vs. St. Bonaventure
This is a really tricky matchup, given how well St. Bonaventure's guards have played, pummeling VCU in the A10 Final. The Bonnies have a plethora of backcourt weapons, but LSU is countering with a legitimate NBA prospect, Cam Thomas. While the shot selection is not always great, he can heat up in a hurry and I don't think anyone in this tournament can shut him down for long. For that reason, I give LSU the slight edge.
Colorado vs. Georgetown
Don't get me wrong. I like Georgetown. But, Colorado has just been more consistent throughout the season and McKinley Wright is a man on a mission. After winning the Big East tournament, I think it is possible that Georgetown comes out a bit flat and Colorado jumps out to an early lead. Blair will likely be the difference maker in this one. I think that Wright will simply be too difficult to stop.
Florida St. vs. UNC Greensboro
Size, size, and more size. Florida St. is just too big to lose to UNC Greensboro in my opinion. Their frontcourt defends hard and I anticipate that they will try to exploit mismatches everywhere. I imagine the Seminoles will play off Isaiah Miller and dare him to shoot from the perimeter. Once again, Florida St. simply presents too much of a mismatch.
BYU vs. UCLA
Throughout most of the game yesterday and beforehand, I anticipated that Michigan St. would advance. Now, BYU secures a matchup with a wounded UCLA, as Johnny Juzang was hurt at the 44-second mark in overtime. Though I believe that BYU is extremely vulnerable, I anticipate that UCLA will not have the depth to matchup with them. Matt Haarms presents a huge size mismatch in the paint. I think UCLA runs out of steam here.
Texas vs. Abilene Christian
This is a matchup that I studied rather thoroughly, after really liking what I saw in the Southland Conference Tournament Finale. Texas has size, they play tough, and they are extremely athletic. However, they do not have a true point guard and are sometimes sloppy with the ball. This could spell disaster against an Abilene Christian team that specializes in turning teams over. Texas lost to Oklahoma early in the year, and they do not always fully utilize their size to dominate offensively. Look for Abilene Christian to take advantage of this. If they can turn Texas over and hit some shots, they stand a good chance. Importantly, ACU needs Kolton Kohl to rim protect against Texas' athletic weapons.
Connecticut vs. Maryland
This is an awfully difficult matchup to call. Maryland plays positionless basketball, but their guards are sometimes prone to poor shot selection. UConn is a team that has not performed as well as they possibly can, when considering their talent level. I expect Bouknight to have a big performance on the biggest stage. RJ Cole is expected to clear concussion protocol and play. This should be a fun one.
Alabama vs. Iona
Bama simply has too many weapons and Herb Jones can lock anyone on Iona up on the defensive end. Look for a variety of Alabama players to score in their opening round contest. Congrats to Pitino for making it here.
South
Baylor vs. Hartford
While Traci Carter can turn you over at a high rate, Baylor once had the best team defense in all of college basketball. Hopefully they take a step closer to that path they were on before their covid pause. Hartford simply does not have the firepower to compete with an elite squad like Baylor.
North Carolina vs. Wisconsin
I don't yet trust the young guards for North Carolina, and I believe Wisconsin has underwhelmed all year. However, when a tournament win is on the line, who will step up? My mind is telling me that UNC is the obvious choice because their size should dominate. Potter and Reuvers struggled to contain more physically imposing presences inside in Big 10 play, so this matchup represents another case where they should struggle.
Villanova vs. Winthrop
While Winthrop is a very good team that can push the pace and tends to take really good shots, I like how Nova matches up with the Eagles. Robinson Earl should be able to contain DJ Burns inside and Winthrop does not possess a disruptive lead guard like Posh Alexander, who really bothered Villanova and forced them into a poor rhythm.
Purdue vs. North Texas
This is another matchup that I looked at very closely. Coach McCasland did a remarkable job double teaming Charles Bassey and getting the ball out of his hands in the CUSA Final. While Trevion Williams is a better passer than Bassey, I imagine that North Texas can use the same disruptive defense to force the ball out of Williams' hands. In the backcourt, look for Jaden Ivey to continue to perform valiantly. In order to win, Javion Hamlet will have to step up and hit shots. I believe they will pull this upset because of their coach's gameplanning, Hamlet's drive to win, and Purdue's struggles holding onto the ball at times.
Texas Tech vs. Utah St.
While Texas Tech doesn't have anyone who can match-up with Neemias Queta, they can double him and force him to make quick decisions. I anticipate that McClung will have a very good game and TTU should escape with the win.
Arkansas vs. Colgate
I am not buying the hype of this matchup. Arkansas' offense is extremely free flowing and they have an NBA level talent in Moses Moody. Colgate does not have the interior athletes to rim protect against Arkansas' elite athleticism. To win, Colgate will have to shoot lights out. I don't think that will happen against Arkansas' length.
Florida vs. Virginia Tech
Florida is going to want to get out there and start running. Unfortunately for them, Virginia Tech has an extremely tough squad this year, and they should be able to compete in transition and establish their own tempo throughout the game. Look for Aluma to present a huge mismatch inside.
Ohio St. vs. Oral Roberts
Max Abmas and Kevin Obanor's scoring prowess should challenge Ohio St, but I would be shocked if they pulled this one off. Their defense would have to look a lot better than it is. Washington is just too tough.
Midwest
Illinois vs. Drexel
This is a huge size mismatch inside with TJ Bickerstaff or James Butler facing off against Kofi Cockburn. Look for Ayo to really take over this game as well.
Loyola Chicago vs. Georgia Tech
While we were all looking forward to this matchup, the announcement that Moses Wright will be out due to covid protocol all but tanks Tech's chances. Krutwig will likely be able to get anything he wants inside. It will be interesting to see how Loyola defends Jose Alvarado. Look for Loyola's D to clamp down and for them to connect from beyond the arc on the other side of the floor.
Tennessee vs. Oregon St.
Tennessee is just too stout of a defensive squad to struggle with a sweet shooting Oregon St. team that streaked through its conference tournament to earn the automatic birth.
Oklahoma St. vs. Liberty
This is a strong upset possibility. If Liberty can shoot lights out, they stand a chance against OK St. McGhee is the catalyst for Liberty and on the alternative side, Cade is looking to solidify his number 1 draft slot.
San Diego St. vs. Syracuse
While Buddy Boeheim has been hot recently, San Diego St. simply has so many weapons. Gomez and Mitchell can hurt you from beyond the arc. Jordan Schakel is too much of a defensive presence.
West Virginia vs. Morehead St.
Morehead St. has the highest TO Rate of any team left in the tournament. If West Virginia can play sound defense and create points off turnovers, WVU could advance pretty easily. If Johni Broome gets Culver into foul trouble, Morehead St. stands a chance.
Clemson vs. Rutgers
Rutgers is a team that I have watched extensively and I like their grit and fight. If they can find their shooting strokes, especially Ron Harper Jr., Clemson could be in for a long night.
Houston vs. Cleveland St.
Grimes and Sasser are simply too dangerous to lose to Cleveland St. I would not be surprised if this Cleveland St. team competes and Torrey Patton has himself a game. With that said, I would be shocked if Cleveland St. advanced here. Houston's D is too difficult, and their guard play is phenomenal.
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