To open the 2022 NCAA Tournament, I provide an overview of my bracket, including some of the logic/insight behind my selections.
West
Gonzaga-Georgia St – This is by no means an easy 1-16
matchup, but the Zags should handle Georgia St (with ease), who got a really bad draw in
terms of their seeding. Look for the Zags to flex their interior might with Drew Timme and Chet
Holmgren.
Outcome: Gonzaga
Boise St.-Memphis – Which Memphis team will come to play?
The Tigers are one of the most talented enigmas in the field, and Jalen Duren’s
emergence down the stretch has really proven to be a key to their success. The
Mountain West champs will not go down without a fight. Look for Abu Kigab and
Emmanuel Akot to have big games. However, DeAndre Williams can match their size
and scoring prowess. Look for Tyler Harris’ game management to be critical for
the Tigers. I expect Memphis’ defense to give them the edge in a close one.
Outcome: Memphis
Connecticut-New Mexico St. – UConn is a very experienced
club that is battle tested. RJ Cole is a handful for the NM St., and Adama
Sanogo is a difficult matchup inside. New Mexico St. counters with good size and length on
the interior, but UConn is more physical. Andre Jackson will be the X
factor on the defensive end.
Outcome: UConn
Arkansas-Vermont – While Eric Musselman is one of the best
coaches in terms of preparing his club for the NCAA tournament, Vermont is
playing some of its best basketball. They are tough, physical and can score
both inside and out. While Arkansas clearly has the athleticism and speed
advantage, the Catamounts play under control and should give them a game. The Ryan Davis-Ben Shungu tandem is going to be difficult to contain. I
think this is the year they will have enough to win one.
Outcome: Vermont
Alabama-Notre Dame – Notre Dame’s ability to go to a five
out offense is intriguing, but Alabama’s bigs are athletic enough to guard on
the perimeter. Bama plays with better pace and is the more talented team. The play-in
game has proven to be advantageous for teams in the next round. If Alabama
comes out cold, Notre Dame could exploit this matchup with solid three point
shooting. In the end, though, Quinerly and company play with too much pace for
the Fighting Irish.
Outcome: Alabama
Texas Tech-Montana St. – Tech is one of the strongest
defensive teams in the country. Look for Bryson Williams to establish himself
early and often, and for Kevin McCullar to lock in on the defensive end. Look for Xavier Bishop or Tyler Patterson to catch fire for Montana St. before they inevitably fall to one of the best defensive teams in the country.
Outcome: Texas Tech
Michigan St.-Davidson – Davidson is one of the most
efficient offensive squads in college basketball and Coach McKillop deserves all the
accolades he receives. As great as Foster Loyer has been for Davidson, Tom Izzo
coached him just a year ago and will likely have insight into how to counter
the Wildcats defensively. The Spartans are playing their best basketball at
this time and their gritty defense should give them an edge.
Outcome: Michigan State
Duke-CS Fullerton – EJ Anosike and Damari Milstead have the
firepower to at least challenge Duke for a time. But, Mark Williams will simply
be too much inside and Duke has the length to clamp down on perimeter shooters.
This is a bad matchup for any 15 seed.
Outcome: Duke
East
Baylor-Norfolk St. – Baylor has not been playing its best basketball. They still have too much size and outside shooting to lose to Norfolk State in the first round. It will be interesting to see how much of a fight Joe Bryant and Jalen Hawkins put up for the Spartans.
Outcome: Baylor
North Carolina-Marquette – Can UNC shut down Justin Lewis? Or will they allow him to go for 30 pts and still win? If UNC pushes the pace and looks
to outmuscle the Golden Eagles inside, Armando Bacot and co. should emerge
victorious. Will UNC’s guards come to play though? I believe this will be a
close one, but Marquette has been trending in the wrong direction lately and
UNC has more talent (with the exception of Lewis).
Outcome: North Carolina
St. Mary’s-Indiana – Trayce Jackson Davis is one of the most
physically imposing players in this tournament and he is not looking to improve
his draft stock by shooting jumpers. TJD is dominating inside with his physical
play and Matthias Tass is a bit overmatched inside. With that said, this is a
dangerous St. Mary’s team that beat Gonzaga and plays a fundamentally sound brand
of basketball. Can Xavier Johnson lock down Kuhse and defend along the
perimeter? Wyoming received way too many open looks against the Hoosiers
defense in the First Four. However, Indiana has momentum heading into this one and the
athletes/shooting to challenge the Gaels.
Outcome: Indiana
UCLA-Akron – It is that time of year again. Can Johnny
Juzang bring his usual march magic? This UCLA team is a little banged up, but
they still have enough firepower to get back to the Final Four, or at least the
Elite 8 (as I have it in my bracket). Akron is a strong midmajor in one of the
more underrated conferences in college basketball (the MAC). Xavier Castaneda
should have a big game for the Zips, but UCLA simply has too many weapons.
Outcome: UCLA
Texas-Virginia Tech – Virginia Tech is playing some of its
best basketball, with a recent ACC tournament championship. Keve Aluma and
Hunter Cattoor are a dynamic combination on offense. Justyn Mutts is extremely
versatile. The Hokies have been defending at a high level – something they will
need to do against a Chris Beard-led squad. Timmy Allen’s midrange game is
extremely deadly and Andrew Jones does a great job getting to the basket.
However, the Mutts-Aluma combo should be able to play enough back line defense
to stymie the Texas attack. Expect an upset win here.
Outcome: Virginia Tech
Purdue-Yale – Azar Swain is a really good basketball player.
However, Purdue simply has too much size and athleticism to be denied here. I
would not expect a good game. Having watched several of the teams in the Ivy League throughout the year, this conference's champ was way over-seeded.
Outcome: Purdue
Murray St.-San Francisco – Murray St’s Tevin Brown is the
Racers’ lethal three point weapon. 6’10 big KJ Williams is dynamic and
effective on the defensive end. The Dons counter with the outstanding backcourt
duo of Jamaree Bouyea and Khalil Shabazz. Murray St must play under control and prevent Bouyea from
creating turnovers. This game is basically even on talent, but the Racers’
aggressive defense should give them a bit of an edge.
Outcome: Murray State
Kentucky-St. Peter’s – KC Ndefo is a solid rim protector and
the threat of Doug Edert’s shot keeps defenses honest. But, Kentucky has simply
way too much firepower at every position. Oscar Tshiebwe is on an unprecedented
rebounding tear and Tyty Washington is one of the best freshmen in the country.
Outcome: Kentucky
South
Arizona-Wright St. – 6’6 Tanner Holden is an intriguing wing and Grant Basile is a dynamic big with excellent passing ability. Arizona simply brings too much size and athleticism with Mathurin and Koloko. With the way Wright St. moves the ball, they might be able to give the Wildcats more of a game than they bargained for.
Outcome: Arizona
Seton Hall-TCU – While the lack of a true point guard for
Seton Hall will hurt against the dynamic Mike Miles, Seton Hall has an
extremely experienced team. Myles Cale has been playing well as of late and
Jared Rhoden is a two way player with something to prove. Can Seton Hall exploit
matchups inside and dominate the glass? I think this game is a toss up given
how well TCU has played lately, but Seton Hall’s seniors have had a lot of time
to prepare for this game.
Outcome: Seton Hall
Houston-UAB – Jordan Walker is one of the most underrated lead
guards in America and Quan Jackson is extremely physical. If UAB is able to
match Houston’s physicality or even come close, they should be able to escape
in what would be a battle. The outcome will depend on their ability to rebound against
the Cougars, which is a tall task for any team. However, can Houston make enough
shots down the stretch with the loss of Marcus Sasser? I am not convinced. An
underrated factor will be Trey Jemison’s ability to defend Fabian White on the
perimeter.
Outcome: UAB
Illinois-Chattanooga – Can Chattanooga matchup with Kofi
Cockburn? Or can their guard play neutralize him and force him to guard on the
perimeter? Malachi Smith is a dynamic player, but the Mocs do not have enough firepower
to upset Illinois if Trent Frazier or Alfonzo Plummer are hitting shots.
Outcome: Illinois
Colorado St.-Michigan – Colorado St. is one of the scrappiest
teams in the field. David Roddy will stretch the Michigan defense and open up
the lane. No one for Colorado St. will be able to guard Hunter Dickinson, but
the Rams have enough depth to outscore Michigan by pushing the tempo. This is a
bad matchup for Colorado St. from a personnel standpoint, but they still should
emerge from this game. Michigan point guard DeVante Jones is out with a concussion he sustained in practice.
Outcome: Colorado St.
Tennessee-Longwood – Justin Hill, Isaiah Wilkins, and
DeShaun Wade are a solid guard trio, but Tennessee has one of the best emerging
NBA prospects in lead guard Kennedy Chandler. Santi Vescovi has had a banner
year and should be too much for the Lancers. Tennessee boasts superior size
with John Fulkerson, Uros Plavsic, Olivier Nkamhoua and Brandon
Huntley-Hatfield, which should prove to be too much.
Outcome: Tennessee
Ohio St.-Loyola Chicago – The Ramblers upset top ranked
Illinois just one year ago. Can they complete a Big Ten sweep here? Ohio St.
has lost four of their last five, with the final being a three point loss to
Penn State. This is predominantly due to injuries. Given Zed Key’s bad ankle
and Kyle Young’s concussion issues, Ohio State will certainly not be at full strength.
Uguak should provide enough rim protection inside, and the Williamson/Norris
backcourt should once again prove to be dangerous from three. EJ Liddell is a
matchup nightmare, but Loyola Chicago’s stout defense should limit the Buckeye’s
perimeter shooting.
Outcome: Loyola Chicago
Villanova-Delaware – In this revenge game for Dylan Painter,
Villanova should have the edge. They are simply the more experienced squad coming
off of a Big East Tournament victory. This Blue Hens team is led by Jameer
Nelson Jr. Anyone with such a name should strike fear into the hearts of Villanova
fans old enough to remember his dad’s dominant run with St. Joes. Tread
cautiously.
Outcome: Villanova
Midwest
Kansas-Texas Southern – At 6’9, John Walker III flashed his perimeter repertoire in the play in game. However intriguing his performance was,
Kansas is going to beat TSU by a wide margin due to Texas Southern’s penchant
for careless turnovers. Ochai Agbaji should have a big game.
Outcome: Kansas
San Diego St.-Creighton – San Diego St. is a disciplined
defensive minded club with the athleticism to give Creighton fits on the
perimeter. Nathan Mensah’s interior defense will be pivotal against Ryan
Kalkbrenner, who has been dominant in recent weeks. Can Matt Bradley and co.
hit enough shots? I believe that Creighton is coming together at the right time
and is probably playing the best basketball of any 8-9 seed at the moment. Ryan
Hawkins has experience winning with Northwest Missouri St. and I have no doubt
that he will make winning plays down the stretch. This game should be close,
but I will give Creighton the edge in a low scoring affair.
Outcome: Creighton
Iowa-Richmond – While many are overlooking the Spiders, Jacob
Gilyard had an outstanding A10 tournament and his team should give Iowa a game.
With that said, Keegan Murray is simply a matchup nightmare and the Hawkeyes
have the defensive tenacity to slow down Richmond’s attack. Look for Iowa to
win in a closer game than most are expecting.
Outcome: Iowa
Providence-South Dakota St. – This was the most difficult
call of the entire bracket in my opinion – the ultimate contrast in styles. SD
St. looks to push and shoots just under 45% from three as a team. Providence,
on the other hand, is tenacious on defense, and should be able to contest the
Jackrabbits from beyond the arc. SD St. does not have a foil for Nate Watson,
who should dominate inside. When SD St. counters and doubles him down low, will
AJ Reeves and company be able to knock down open threes? The combination of
defensive pace and Providence’s willingness to push the tempo could tire out a
run-and-gun Jackrabbits squad. If Providence allows Baylor Scheierman to get
into a rhythm, they are in for a long night. SD St. has struggled against size
and tempo previously, so Providence should have the ever-so-slight edge.
Outcome: Providence
LSU-Iowa St. – LSU fired Coach Will Wade prior to this game,
which could be a blessing or a curse. Either the team is fired up about the
loss of their coach, or they will come out completely lost and disjointed. Iowa State’s defense is
tenacious and Izaiah Brockington is extremely aggressive attacking the basket. This
game should be tightly contested.
Outcome: Iowa State
Wisconsin-Colgate – The Badgers should not take this Colgate
team lightly. However, Johnny Davis and a tournament ready Brad Davison should
prove too much for the Patriot’s top team. Keep an eye on both Nelly Cummings
and Jack Ferguson for the Raiders. Tyler Wahl should have his way with Jeff
Woodward inside, due to his superior mobility.
Outcome: Wisconsin
USC-Miami (Fl.) – USC is the bigger team and Isaiah Mobley’s
defense is a game changer at the college level. Charlie Moore, Kameron McGusty,
and Isaiah Wong are dynamic guards for the Hurricanes, but USC simply has
superior length and size. Boogie Ellis will need to come to play.
Outcome: USC
Auburn-Jacksonville St. – Auburn is probably the most
talented team in the field, with the best 2022 NBA draft prospect in Jabari
Smith. The 6’10 wing can get his shot in a number of ways, and is remarkably
efficient from beyond the arc. Big man Walker Kessler is extremely difficult to
contain inside. Guard Darian Adams and co. will have their hands full, though I
expect the game to be closer than most are expecting.
Outcome: Auburn
Image Courtesy of: The Coloradoan
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