NCAA Tournament 2022 - Elite 8 Analysis (Part 1)

Down goes Number 1! Twice! Gonzaga fell last night, as did Arizona. Though I anticipated early on that Arizona would probably be knocked out at some point before the Final Four due to their lack of outside shooting following the Kerr Kriisa injury, I did not anticipate that Houston would be the culprit. This tournament continues to be one of the most unpredictable, with Coach Musselman and Arkansas getting the job done against perennial powerhouse, Gonzaga. In this segment, I try to make sense of the current landscape and offer my amended picks for the Elite 8 (part 1 of 2).

Houston vs. Villanova - My initial inclination is to lean towards picking Villanova in this matchup because they can counter UH's pressure and are so fundamentally sound. They have players that can bang on the glass with Houston, even if they are not able to match the Cougar's offensive rebounding intensity one for one. So, it certainly is a bad matchup for Houston. Nova also can go five men out and space the floor, which works if they are hitting their shots. They were cold for much of the Michigan game and struggled with the Wolverines length along the perimeter because Coach Howard clearly prepared an excellent game plan. Kelvin Sampson has done an even more remarkable job from a coaching standpoint, and should have his guys ready for every punch Villanova will throw at them. At the end of the day, this game will come down to whether or not Nova can match Houston's intensity on the glass and if Collin Gillespie is healthy. Gillespie had his left knee landed on (the one that was repaired last year) at the end of the Michigan game, when the game was basically out of reach. If this prevents him from playing at a high level, Nova is in a lot of trouble. But, all reports suggest that he will be okay. As such, Villanova and their patient offensive should wear out the Cougars en route to a Final Four birth.

Outcome: Villanova 

Arkansas vs. Duke - While I never considered how much Gonzaga struggled with teams led by an extremely athletic point guard that push the pace, I probably should have. Alabama beat them early in the year, utilizing the same strategy. Arkansas' defense has been outstanding, but Duke just faced the top D in college basketball. The Razorbacks are a bit longer than Texas Tech and can counter Duke's size a bit better. With that said, Duke is on an absolute tear - completely locked in on the offense end, especially at the FT line. Jeremy Roach was special in Duke's Sweet Sixteen matchup, audibling his own number on several drives to the rim. His screen and roll chemistry with Mark Williams is still a force to be reckoned with as well. Paolo Banchero was phenomenal in their last game, and I do not suspect that Arkansas will be able to limit him as much as they will need to. I never count Coach Muss out in a March game, but this Duke team is truly on a role. 

Outcome: Duke

Image Courtesy of Villanova Athletics (villanova.com)