Far and away, my favorite breakout prospect entering the 2021-22 season is Purdue's Jaden Ivey. As I noted in "One and Done? The Case for Jaden Ivey's Emergence Ahead of the NCAA Tournament", Ivey is an elite prospect with a good chance to be selected in the top 10 in the 2022 NBA draft (if not the top 3). Upon making a splash in the NCAA tournament, willing his team with 26 pivotal points against North Texas, Ivey continued his emergence over the summer. His performance with Team USA on the U19 team earned him a spot on the World Cup Allstar Team and he was an indispensable part of the US' first place finish. While Ivey has not yet come into his own as a pure point, his elite handle, burst, and emerging floor game portend a bright future as a shot creator and ball distributor.
Jaden moves well without the ball, and is dynamic streaking to the basket. While he will need to show that he can operate in the pick and roll, Ivey demonstrated considerable growth as a shooter over the summer, something which should help keep defenses honest and shore up the rest of his game.
On the defensive side of the ball, Ivey is an absolute pest in the passing lanes.
His quick leaping ability enables him to chase down blocks.
Overall, Jaden Ivey projects as one of the most dynamic on ball defenders entering the 2021-22 season.
It is easy to see why he very well could be college basketball's top returning NCAA prospect.
Colorado's rising sophomore forward Jabari Walker (son of former NBA player Samaki Walker) also broke out in the NCAA tournament against Georgetown. While he had shot the ball well all season long (in 2020-21), connecting on 52.3% of his 3 pt attempts, Walker scorched the nets in his first NCAA tournament appearance against Georgetown. Importantly for his transition to the next level, Walker has excellent pick and roll fundamentals, and does a nice job finding gaps for open pick and pop opportunities.
In his first season, Walker functioned primarily as a spot up shooter who also moved well without the ball and finished on clean up baskets. To take his game to the next level, Walker must demonstrate that he can handle the ball and create for his teammates. His "freshman" decision making was questionable at times, and his 0.5-to-1 assist to turnover ratio left a lot to be desired. Look for Jabari Walker to make significant strides here and demonstrate a more diversified offensive repertoire.
On the defensive end, Walker possesses good versatility and the potential to switch onto perimeter players. While his footspeed is decent relative to his size, Walker's greatest strength is his ability to cover ground and disrupt shots. As you can see from the below clip, Walker was able to disrupt a shooter while also containing dribble penetration.
In lieu of his good footspeed and excellent quick closeout recoveries to open shooters, Walker is a formidable 1 on 1 defender on the perimeter.
But, can he rim protect? Walker must demonstrate growth in his interior defense and rim protection. This will be a major question mark for him as we embark on a new season.
In terms of upperclassmen with the potential to breakout, Villanova's Brandon Slater is one of the strongest candidates due to his defensive versatility and efficient three point shooting. While I would not expect Slater to function as the go to weapon for Villanova this year, Slater certainly will play an important role on one of the top teams in the country and should easily eclipse his 17mpg played a season ago.
In terms of the intricacies of his game, Slater is predominantly a 3-and-D threat with good length, athleticism, and a high basketball IQ. He shot 41.7% from 3pt range a year ago and almost never forced the action, only opting to shoot when open.
Against Baylor in the Sweet Sixteen, Slater stood out on the defensive side of the ball, making several effort plays and wreaking havoc with his on ball defense.
Slater also fought for loose balls and rebounds, boxing out bigger opponents.
On the offensive side of the ball, Slater brought infectious energy to the game, dunking over Matthew Mayer on one possession and making a strong basket cut and finish on another.
Over the summer, Slater participated in the 3x3 U23 Championship with several of his Villanova teammates. There he showcased a more compact stroke with a shortened release. He was able to get this shot off the dribble with very little daylight between him and the defender, in stark contrast to the often open shots he took last season.
Physically, Slater looks like he put even more effort in the weight room and is an imposing presence on the wing. This translated on the defensive end of the floor, as Slater served as a ball hawk, locking down his man one on one.
Sporting a newfound confidence that coincides with increased minutes in the rotation, Brandon Slater should establish himself as one of the biggest surprise players of the 2021-22 season. He must continue to refine his handle to become a more versatile offensive weapon, but his stroke and defensive prowess should get him some looks at the next level.
Another late blossoming upperclassman worth mentioning is Alabama's Keon Ellis, a long 6'6 wing with excellent one on one scoring ability. Ellis possesses a blazing first step and excellent hesitation moves getting to the rim. Ellis often implements shot/head fakes to draw his defender off balance. At 175 lbs, though, Ellis must continue to improve physically so that he can better finish through contact at the rim. This is particularly evident in transition, where he was often able to beat his man off the dribble, but needed to do a better job finishing through contact.
While the strength of his game is clearly his one on one isolation offense, Ellis was relegated to a secondary scoring role a season ago, functioning primarily as a spot up shooting option along the perimeter (a little over a third of his offense according to Synergy Sports). Ellis excelled in this role and did a nice job of spacing the floor, moving into open positions along the perimeter, where he was ready to shoot at a moment's notice. He has an excellent sense for floor spacing and does a great job of freeing himself, moving without the ball.
He connected on 38.9% of his attempts from three point range a year ago, and he could improve on this percentage if he corrects his tendency of moving the ball side to side on his shooting motion.
With a season of SEC basketball under his belt, look for Ellis to be more comfortable slashing to the basket and finishing in halfcourt sets.
With increased offensive responsibility, Ellis must be stronger with the ball and continue to refine his handle. Additionally, I expect him to make strides as a decision maker, utilizing his quick first step to find open teammates along the perimeter.
On the defensive side of the ball, Ellis possesses excellent length, athleticism, and the footspeed to disrupt offensive players along the perimeter. He is a pest in passing lanes and has good spatial awareness, calling out rotations and finding his assignment when the offense shifts. Ellis' closeouts are extremely disruptive due to his exceptional length and quickness. He must continue to progress on this side of the ball by not biting too early on fakes and not undercutting jump shooters, both of which lead to unnecessary fouls. Ellis is very good on the defensive glass and uses these rebounds to push the tempo and attack out in transition. This will be a key part of Ellis' offensive production this year.
Overall, with one year in the SEC under his belt (after transferring from Florida Southwestern St. Junior College), Keon Ellis appears to be fully acclimated to the strength/speed difference of defenders at this level, and is poised for a breakout season with more responsibility initiating Alabama's offense. While he must continue to improve his strength profile and handle, Ellis is someone to keep an eye on in NBA draft circles due to his explosive first step and defensive skillset.
Lastly, Michigan's DeVante' Jones is a savvy old school point guard with the poise to take over games late. The 6'1 Coastal Carolina transfer brings a steadying presence at the lead guard slot, controlling tempo and moving the ball around the perimeter. Jones should have no problem filling in for Mike Smith and controlling the pace of the game, opportunistically scoring for himself within the scheme of the offense.
Upon declaring early for the NBA draft this summer, Jones was selected to the G League Elite Camp, where he blossomed in two exhibition contests. Throughout this event, Jones utilized his impressive handle, body control, and change-of-pace dribbles to get where he wanted in the lane and finish on several floaters and runners.
Jones does an excellent job of probing the defense with his exceptional footwork, finding open teammates or creating for himself. He frequently pushes the ball ahead of the defense and finds teammates along the perimeter. Look for him to flash some growth in the pick and roll game this year.
Jones regularly puts his defender on his back hip and creates contact, earning extra trips to the free throw line. This was also one of his strengths at Coast Carolina, where he drew 5.4 fouls per 40 minutes, good for 2nd best in the Sun Belt (according to kenpom.com 2020-21 data).
When he isn't earning trips to the line, Jones utilizes his change-of-pace dribble to drive past his initial defender before sporting an effective running one hander (or fadeaway), the range of which extends out to the free throw line.
In terms of his shooting ability, Jones is adept shooting off the catch. Look for him to improve on his 33% 3pt % a season ago with more open looks. Jones would benefit by adding more elevation to his jump shot.
On the defensive end, Jones is tenacious going after the ball. While he is not the most laterally quick guard, Jones possesses good awareness of spacing and moves to the appropriate spots on the floor. He habitually guides his man into the backline help defender.
Importantly, Jones possesses very quick hands and was quite a nuisance at the G League Elite Camp. He quickly turns defense into offense.
Given his good spatial awareness, Jones is also disruptive in passing lanes.
Importantly, Jones competes on the defensive glass - utilizing a solid base - and uses these plays to push the tempo.
He does all of the little things to help his team win: diving on loose balls, cutting his man off, competing in the post, drawing charges, and hustling back on defense.
All in all, DeVante' Jones should emerge as one of the most important cogs in a revamped Michigan attack. If he can cut down on careless turnovers and play stronger with the ball in his hands, he should boost his pro stock. Jones must demonstrate that he can keep defenses honest from the perimeter as well, a wrinkle of his game he did not flash at the G League Elite Camp this summer.
Others Deserving Mention:
Moussa Cisse, Oklahoma St.
Andrew Nembhard, Gonzaga
Tramon Mark, Houston
Alonzo Verge Jr., Nebraska
Seth Lundy, Penn St.
Khalid Thomas, Portland St.
Chandler Jacobs, Colorado St.
Data Sources: Synergy Sports Technology, ESPN+, FIBA, & Kenpom.com
Image Source: usab.com, cubuffs.com, vuhoops.com, si.com, & maizenbrew.com
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