In this edition, I cover the Final Four matchups and how I expect them to play out.
Kansas vs. Villanova - The unfortunate loss of Justin Moore to an Achilles tear really hurts the Wildcats in a tough matchup against a streaking Kansas team. But, remember, Jay Wright had this same Villanova team up against Baylor at the half a year ago, with All American Collin Gillespie out. With a week to prepare, the Wildcats should be up for this game. Look for them to ensure that this matchup is played on their terms, at their deliberate pace. The key will be whether or not Eric Dixon gets into foul trouble. The losses of both Moore and Jordan Longino, mean that Chris Arcidiacono and Bryan Antoine will play a significant role in this game. With Dixon out, one of these two players will need to score the ball. Additionally, Brandon Slater will need to break out of his shooting slump and look to score with the same aggression he started the year with. Will David McCormack cause matchup problems across the board for the Wildcats? Samuels and co. possess the physicality and mental toughness to fight with him on the block. Slater's impact guarding Ochai Agbaji will also be pivotal. If Villanova controls the pace, they should squeak by in this one. If Kansas is able to push the ball with the same intensity as it did against Miami (Fl.) in the second half, it could be a long night for Villanova.
Outcome: Villanova
North Carolina vs. Duke - North Carolina comes into this game playing the best basketball of any team in this tournament. They narrowly defeated last year's Final Four team in UCLA, and obliterated everyone's favorite Cinderella. Now comes the biggest rivalry game in all of college basketball. Will the Tar Heels have enough to send Coach K to an early retirement? They certainly have shown that they do. The key will be if Armando Bacot can stay out of foul trouble. In the first half of Carolina's upset at Cameron, Duke maintained a comfortable lead until late in the half because Bacot was saddled with foul trouble. The Tar Heels ball movement is at its best when Bacot is able to draw additional defensive coverage, before kicking it back out to the perimeter. Against Duke, this would certainly open up the game. Bacot has a size and experience advantage over Duke's potential lottery pick, Mark Williams. Look for him to exploit this strength advantage and to score regularly. However, Duke simply is playing its best basketball at the right time of year, and their defense has taken a big leap forward in the last month. Jeremy Roach has been phenomenal in the pick and roll game. Look for this game to come down to a buzzer beater in an instant classic. Can Paolo Banchero or AJ Griffin hit it? I believe they can and will.
Outcome: Duke
Photo Courtesy of Duke Basketball Report
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