NCAA Tournament 2022 - Elite 8 Analysis (Part 1)

Down goes Number 1! Twice! Gonzaga fell last night, as did Arizona. Though I anticipated early on that Arizona would probably be knocked out at some point before the Final Four due to their lack of outside shooting following the Kerr Kriisa injury, I did not anticipate that Houston would be the culprit. This tournament continues to be one of the most unpredictable, with Coach Musselman and Arkansas getting the job done against perennial powerhouse, Gonzaga. In this segment, I try to make sense of the current landscape and offer my amended picks for the Elite 8 (part 1 of 2).

Houston vs. Villanova - My initial inclination is to lean towards picking Villanova in this matchup because they can counter UH's pressure and are so fundamentally sound. They have players that can bang on the glass with Houston, even if they are not able to match the Cougar's offensive rebounding intensity one for one. So, it certainly is a bad matchup for Houston. Nova also can go five men out and space the floor, which works if they are hitting their shots. They were cold for much of the Michigan game and struggled with the Wolverines length along the perimeter because Coach Howard clearly prepared an excellent game plan. Kelvin Sampson has done an even more remarkable job from a coaching standpoint, and should have his guys ready for every punch Villanova will throw at them. At the end of the day, this game will come down to whether or not Nova can match Houston's intensity on the glass and if Collin Gillespie is healthy. Gillespie had his left knee landed on (the one that was repaired last year) at the end of the Michigan game, when the game was basically out of reach. If this prevents him from playing at a high level, Nova is in a lot of trouble. But, all reports suggest that he will be okay. As such, Villanova and their patient offensive should wear out the Cougars en route to a Final Four birth.

Outcome: Villanova 

Arkansas vs. Duke - While I never considered how much Gonzaga struggled with teams led by an extremely athletic point guard that push the pace, I probably should have. Alabama beat them early in the year, utilizing the same strategy. Arkansas' defense has been outstanding, but Duke just faced the top D in college basketball. The Razorbacks are a bit longer than Texas Tech and can counter Duke's size a bit better. With that said, Duke is on an absolute tear - completely locked in on the offense end, especially at the FT line. Jeremy Roach was special in Duke's Sweet Sixteen matchup, audibling his own number on several drives to the rim. His screen and roll chemistry with Mark Williams is still a force to be reckoned with as well. Paolo Banchero was phenomenal in their last game, and I do not suspect that Arkansas will be able to limit him as much as they will need to. I never count Coach Muss out in a March game, but this Duke team is truly on a role. 

Outcome: Duke

Image Courtesy of Villanova Athletics (villanova.com)

NCAA Tournament 2022 - Sweet Sixteen Analysis

In tonight's update, I cover the Sweet Sixteen matchups and who should advance to the Elite 8. 

Michigan vs. Villanova - I hate to say this again, but Michigan is a very bad matchup for Villanova because of Hunter Dickinson. Nova's rugged forwards will not likely be able to counter the matchup problem that Dickinson presents inside. If they help down all game and force the ball out of his hands, this will leave someone open. Caleb Houstan and Eli Brooks have been hitting their shots and picking their spots well. But, Villanova is not going to lie down against anyone, and I expect them to play with more focus than they did against Ohio State. Collin Gillespie and Justin Moore will need to shoot well for Nova to emerge. Slater will have to limit his fouls and continue to apply pressure on D. Eric Dixon will have his work cut out for him on the defensive end, but he also can draw fouls on Hunter. This game should be fun. Despite the bad matchup, Villanova is on a mission.

Outcome: Villanova

Arkansas vs. Gonzaga - The Arkansas Razorbacks have the size, athleticism, and strength to match up with Gonzaga. I do not believe that they will have any problem creating shots and finishing at the rim. They also can run with the Zags, as they showed much of the SEC season. For this reason, they are technically a bad matchup. However, it will depend on what version of JD Notae comes to play. If he is turnover prone and gets into foul trouble, this game could get out of hand rather quickly. Gonzaga rarely allows teams to hang around. For every punch, there needs to be an equal counterpunch, or the Zags' lead will swell to double figures. I expect the Zags to turn Notae over and easily escape in this one. 

Outcome: Gonzaga

Texas Tech vs. Duke - Texas Tech's tough D could spell problems for the Blue Devils. They compete and physically impose their will on other teams. However, this Duke team has the size in Mark Williams and Paolo Banchero to not only match up with Texas Tech, but to cause some problems for the Red Raiders. I expect Kevin McCullar to turn Duke over and have a big game. But, AJ Griffin and Wendell Moore's length and athleticism should present unique matchup problems. Can Trevor Keels play under control? This will be pivotal. I envision Duke winning in a hard fought battle, where their talented offensive attack is able to overcome a stingy defense.

Outcome: Duke

Arizona vs. Houston - The Houston Cougars are an interesting opponent for Arizona. They fight on the offensive glass and consistently create extra opportunities. Will they get these second chance points  against Zona's frontline of Azuolas Tubelis and Christian Koloko? I do not believe that they have the size to contend with Arizona inside. And, on the outside, Dalen Terry and Ben Mathurin should present unique match up problems with their length and athleticism. Taze Moore could be the X factor for Houston if this game is close. I ultimately believe the Wildcats will win by a comfortable margin because of their interior strength.

Outcome: Arizona

Kansas vs. Providence - The Friars are really on a roll after escaping the dreaded Jackrabbits of South Dakota St. They are defensively sound, with both Jared Bynum and Al Durham playing very well. Nate Watson is a handful inside, and he should continue to cause problems against David McCormick and Kansas. With that said, Providence's D will really be tested with the length of All American Ochai Agbaji and understated athleticism of Christian Braun. If Remy Martin plays under control, Providence is really going to be in trouble. Kansas brings too much offensive firepower to this duel. They should win in a tightly contested fist fight. 

Outcome: Kansas

UCLA vs. North Carolina - With the Tarheels' high octane attack, they are the darkhorse team to cut down the nets this year. Their transition game and the scoring of Caleb Love and RJ Davis on the wing will be key against one of the most experienced teams left in the field. Brady Manek has also been phenomenal lately. UCLA can counter, though, with Myles Johnson, who is a viable rim protector and shot blocker. Cody Riley should be able to draw Bacot and co. away from the paint defensively. How effective Jaime Jaquez will be after his ankle injury will be incredibly important, considering we have not yet seen last year's Johnny Juzang in this tournament. Ultimately, floor general Tyger Campbell should be able to slow down the pace and force North Carolina into half court sets. When that happens, UCLA will have the edge. 

Outcome: UCLA 

Miami (Fl.) vs. Iowa State - Gabe Kalscheur shot the ball extremely well against Wisconsin. I expect Izaiah Brockington to have a better game against Miami (Fl.) as well. However, the Hurricane's three headed guard attack of Kameron McGusty, Isaiah Wong, and Charlie Moore should prove to be too dynamic for the Cyclones, even if they are able to muck the game up. Don't expect the Hurricanes to shoot 2-22 from three point range like Wisconsin did. 

Outcome: Miami (Fl.)

St. Peter's vs. Purdue - Can the Peacocks continue their magical run against Purdue? This true David-Goliath matchup features 7'4 standout Zach Edey facing off against proverbial underdogs 6'8 Clarence Rupert and 6'7 KC NDefo. While NDefo has been the best shot blocker in this tournament, size kills. I do not expect St. Peter's to be able to counter Purdue's interior might. While the Peacocks can impose their physicality on this game, Jaden Ivey's electric transition attack should have St. Pete's guards on their heels for much of the game. If St. Peter's can shoot like they did against Kentucky, all bets are off though. Will the move to the Wells Fargo Center impact their shooting? Unless Jaden Ivey really presses the D, this could devolve into a half court battle, which would be a coin flip with the way St. Peter's is executing their sets. I expect a close one barring early foul trouble from NDefo. 

Outcome: Purdue

Image Courtesy of si.com

NCAA Tournament 2022 - 2nd Round Analysis (Part 2)

After several close contests and another win by tournament darling St. Peter's, here are my expectations heading into Sunday's games.

Villanova vs. Ohio State - This is not a great matchup for Villanova. Ohio St. plays a similarly tough brand of basketball and Liddell is a matchup nightmare, as is Malaki Branham. At the end of the day, though, Collin Gillespie is a man on a mission. Brandon Slater's versatility and contributions on defense will be the most critical part of this game. Can Jermaine Samuels limit Liddell enough to advance Nova to the Sweet Sixteen? I think Villanova's offense will have enough juice to outscore the Buckeyes.

Outcome: Villanova

Houston vs. Illinois - While one would normally think that Houston has an advantage due to their tenacity on the glass, Kofi Cockburn is a force inside. White's ability to stretch the floor could cause some issues for the Illini, but Houston is going to have to hit shots to win this game. Look for Illinois to have a much better contribution from Trent Frazier, who was almost nonexistent against Chattanooga. 

Outcome: Illinois

Duke vs. Michigan State 

Tom Izzo will have his team ready to play against the Blue Devils. Given the toughness the Spartans exude, the game will ultimately come down to who can rebound and make the most shots down the stretch. There is no answer for Paolo Banchero on the offensive end, and Mark Williams should put a lid on the rim. 

Outcome: Duke

Iowa State vs. Wisconsin

This matchup could be deceptively close if Izaiah Brockington is tasked with guarding Johnny Davis. While Davis is still going to score, Brockington could force Wisconsin's supporting cast into a bigger role. That means Brad Davison is going to have to step up in this one. Ultimately, I like Wisconsin because they are tough and have a lot of weapons who can catch fire from the perimeter.

Outcome: Wisconsin

Texas Tech vs. Notre Dame - Notre Dame is one of the hottest shooting teams left in the tournament. But, Texas Tech has one of the stoutest defenses in the country. This could finally be the end of the road for red hot Cormac Ryan and the Fighting Irish. Kevin McCullar will play a pivotal role in this one. Will Notre Dame have an answer for Bryson Williams inside? I don't think so.

Outcome: Texas Tech

Miami (Fl) vs. Auburn - This should be a high paced shootout. The first to 75 wins. Can Auburn's guards clamp down on the guard trio McGusty, Wong, and Moore? It will be quite difficult. However, Miami will have no answer for Jabari Smith and Walker Kessler. While USC also had a ton of size, Auburn has more shot makers than Miami's previous opponent. That will be the difference in this one. 

Outcome: Auburn

Texas vs. Purdue - In a similar vein to the Auburn contest, can Texas match up with Zach Edey or Trevion Williams inside? Jaden Ivey has the defensive chops to shut down Texas' top perimeter shooter, whether that is Andrew Jones or Marcus Carr. Purdue will need at least one of Stefanovic, Hunter, or Newman to step up and hit shots. Ultimately, the Boilermakers' interior might will prove to be too much for the Longhorns.

Outcome: Purdue

TCU vs. Arizona - TCU is playing great basketball and absolutely annihilated Seton Hall. If Mike Miles can hit some shots, the Horn Frogs should be able to keep this game close. Ultimately, the interior duo of Azuolas Tubelis and Christian Koloko will be too much for the Horn Frogs. Ben Mathurin should also have a big game. 

Outcome: Arizona

Image Courtesy of the Chicago Tribune

NCAA Tournament 2022 - 2nd Round Analysis (Part 1)

After one day of action, my bracket is completely busted. As anticipated, this is a bit of a strange year. But, the shooting struggles of Kellan Grady is something I should have taken into account. You can't win in the tournament if you can't shoot. After a day of taking in the new landscape, here are my amended second round predictions.

North Carolina-Baylor - UNC absolutely blew Marquette out and bullied them inside. The Tar Heels won't have the same advantage against Baylor. If Caleb Love and RJ Davis can shoot it, UNC has a chance to upset the Baylor Bears. I do not believe that the Tar Heels will outshoot this Baylor team. Sochan's defensive presence will prove to be too much for Brady Manek. This game will be close, but it is a bad matchup from a personnel standpoint for UNC. 

Outcome: Baylor

Creighton-Kansas - I was flirting with the idea of advancing Creighton in my original bracket because of how well they played in the Big East tournament, as well as the winning experience of Ryan Hawkins with Northwest Missouri State. However, they came out extremely flat against San Diego State, and struggled against significant ball pressure. Kansas only boasts lengthier athletes. Also, the loss of Kalkbrenner to injury effectively eliminates the challenge in my mind.

Outcome: Kansas

Michigan-Tennessee - Originally, I anticipated that Colorado State would come in shooting like St. Peter's because of their experience and David Roddy connecting on almost 45% of his three point shots on the year. They came out completely flat in the second half and could not hit an open shot or layup. Michigan is still rife for upset though. While Frankie Collins played extremely well last round, Michigan's run should end because of Tennessee's defensive intensity and the play of Santi Vescovi. Can DeVante' Jones play the hero role? Jones is a gifted player, but it would take a lot to outplay Tennessee's backcourt. For NBA draft stock watchers, Caleb Houstan has been great.

Outcome: Tennessee

Richmond-Providence - Richmond played remarkably well on the defensive end against Iowa. Jacob Gilyard is a problem, but the Friars counter with a ton of grit and defensive intensity. While the Iowa front line allowed Richmond to score some easy baskets, I don't anticipate that this will happen against Nate Watson unless he gets into foul trouble early. Al Durham's motor and defensive pressure should limit Gilyard a bit more than Iowa was able to do. This is a bad second round matchup for the Spiders.

Outcome: Providence

St. Mary's-UCLA - My prediction that Indiana would upset St. Mary's was simply because the First Four teams appear to have an advantage developing a rhythm. St. Mary's dismantled the Hoosiers in an embarrassing fashion. UCLA has way more weapons than Indiana, but can they step out on St. Mary's shooters? The Gaels are shooting too well in my opinion, and they should be able to pull the upset.

Outcome: St. Mary's

Murray State-St. Peter's - While I was obviously upset that my bracket was busted this early, St. Peter's played outstanding basketball against Kentucky. Daryl Banks was phenomenal against the Wildcats. And, the Peacock's Ndefo was limited with foul trouble in the first half. Murray State's pace and defensive intensity should present a unique challenge for St. Peter's, who pride themselves on these same principles. Murray appears to have more weapons, so they are more likely to win. But, do not count out St. Peter's if they can continue to shoot at such a high clip.

Outcome: Murray State

Arkansas-New Mexico St - Teddy Allen played the best game of the tournament so far. He hit some incredibly difficult shots against UConn's defensive intensity. Arkansas has lengthy athletes that can match up with the Aggies. JD Notae is a bit out of control at times, but he is one of the quickest athletes in the open floor. I do not anticipate that the Aggies can continue to shoot at the same clip against Arkansas, but you never know. This field is wide open.

Outcome: Arkansas  

Memphis-Gonzaga - Memphis had a big lead against Boise State, but allowed the Broncos to get back in the game. Memphis is one of the most talented, athletic teams in the tournament. On paper, they should be able to give Gonzaga fits. However, the Zags are simply way more experienced and play a fundamentally sound brand of basketball. The Tigers are capable of winning this game, but they likely won't. Timme should have a big game.

Outcome: Gonzaga

Image Courtesy of University of North Carolina athletics

NCAA Tournament 2022 - First Round Analysis

To open the 2022 NCAA Tournament, I provide an overview of my bracket, including some of the logic/insight behind my selections.

Round 1 Bracket Analysis

West

Gonzaga-Georgia St – This is by no means an easy 1-16 matchup, but the Zags should handle Georgia St (with ease), who got a really bad draw in terms of their seeding. Look for the Zags to flex their interior might with Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren.

Outcome: Gonzaga

Boise St.-Memphis – Which Memphis team will come to play? The Tigers are one of the most talented enigmas in the field, and Jalen Duren’s emergence down the stretch has really proven to be a key to their success. The Mountain West champs will not go down without a fight. Look for Abu Kigab and Emmanuel Akot to have big games. However, DeAndre Williams can match their size and scoring prowess. Look for Tyler Harris’ game management to be critical for the Tigers. I expect Memphis’ defense to give them the edge in a close one.

Outcome: Memphis

Connecticut-New Mexico St. – UConn is a very experienced club that is battle tested. RJ Cole is a handful for the NM St., and Adama Sanogo is a difficult matchup inside. New Mexico St. counters with good size and length on the interior, but UConn is more physical. Andre Jackson will be the X factor on the defensive end.

Outcome: UConn

Arkansas-Vermont – While Eric Musselman is one of the best coaches in terms of preparing his club for the NCAA tournament, Vermont is playing some of its best basketball. They are tough, physical and can score both inside and out. While Arkansas clearly has the athleticism and speed advantage, the Catamounts play under control and should give them a game. The Ryan Davis-Ben Shungu tandem is going to be difficult to contain. I think this is the year they will have enough to win one.

Outcome: Vermont

Alabama-Notre Dame – Notre Dame’s ability to go to a five out offense is intriguing, but Alabama’s bigs are athletic enough to guard on the perimeter. Bama plays with better pace and is the more talented team. The play-in game has proven to be advantageous for teams in the next round. If Alabama comes out cold, Notre Dame could exploit this matchup with solid three point shooting. In the end, though, Quinerly and company play with too much pace for the Fighting Irish.

Outcome: Alabama

Texas Tech-Montana St. – Tech is one of the strongest defensive teams in the country. Look for Bryson Williams to establish himself early and often, and for Kevin McCullar to lock in on the defensive end. Look for Xavier Bishop or Tyler Patterson to catch fire for Montana St. before they inevitably fall to one of the best defensive teams in the country.

Outcome: Texas Tech

Michigan St.-Davidson – Davidson is one of the most efficient offensive squads in college basketball and Coach McKillop deserves all the accolades he receives. As great as Foster Loyer has been for Davidson, Tom Izzo coached him just a year ago and will likely have insight into how to counter the Wildcats defensively. The Spartans are playing their best basketball at this time and their gritty defense should give them an edge.

Outcome: Michigan State

Duke-CS Fullerton – EJ Anosike and Damari Milstead have the firepower to at least challenge Duke for a time. But, Mark Williams will simply be too much inside and Duke has the length to clamp down on perimeter shooters. This is a bad matchup for any 15 seed.

Outcome: Duke

East

Baylor-Norfolk St. – Baylor has not been playing its best basketball. They still have too much size and outside shooting to lose to Norfolk State in the first round. It will be interesting to see how much of a fight Joe Bryant and Jalen Hawkins put up for the Spartans.

Outcome: Baylor

North Carolina-Marquette – Can UNC shut down Justin Lewis? Or will they allow him to go for 30 pts and still win? If UNC pushes the pace and looks to outmuscle the Golden Eagles inside, Armando Bacot and co. should emerge victorious. Will UNC’s guards come to play though? I believe this will be a close one, but Marquette has been trending in the wrong direction lately and UNC has more talent (with the exception of Lewis).

Outcome: North Carolina

St. Mary’s-Indiana – Trayce Jackson Davis is one of the most physically imposing players in this tournament and he is not looking to improve his draft stock by shooting jumpers. TJD is dominating inside with his physical play and Matthias Tass is a bit overmatched inside. With that said, this is a dangerous St. Mary’s team that beat Gonzaga and plays a fundamentally sound brand of basketball. Can Xavier Johnson lock down Kuhse and defend along the perimeter? Wyoming received way too many open looks against the Hoosiers defense in the First Four. However, Indiana has momentum heading into this one and the athletes/shooting to challenge the Gaels.

Outcome: Indiana

UCLA-Akron – It is that time of year again. Can Johnny Juzang bring his usual march magic? This UCLA team is a little banged up, but they still have enough firepower to get back to the Final Four, or at least the Elite 8 (as I have it in my bracket). Akron is a strong midmajor in one of the more underrated conferences in college basketball (the MAC). Xavier Castaneda should have a big game for the Zips, but UCLA simply has too many weapons.

Outcome: UCLA

Texas-Virginia Tech – Virginia Tech is playing some of its best basketball, with a recent ACC tournament championship. Keve Aluma and Hunter Cattoor are a dynamic combination on offense. Justyn Mutts is extremely versatile. The Hokies have been defending at a high level – something they will need to do against a Chris Beard-led squad. Timmy Allen’s midrange game is extremely deadly and Andrew Jones does a great job getting to the basket. However, the Mutts-Aluma combo should be able to play enough back line defense to stymie the Texas attack. Expect an upset win here.

Outcome: Virginia Tech

Purdue-Yale – Azar Swain is a really good basketball player. However, Purdue simply has too much size and athleticism to be denied here. I would not expect a good game. Having watched several of the teams in the Ivy League throughout the year, this conference's champ was way over-seeded.

Outcome: Purdue

Murray St.-San Francisco – Murray St’s Tevin Brown is the Racers’ lethal three point weapon. 6’10 big KJ Williams is dynamic and effective on the defensive end. The Dons counter with the outstanding backcourt duo of Jamaree Bouyea and Khalil Shabazz. Murray St must play under control and prevent Bouyea from creating turnovers. This game is basically even on talent, but the Racers’ aggressive defense should give them a bit of an edge.

Outcome: Murray State

Kentucky-St. Peter’s – KC Ndefo is a solid rim protector and the threat of Doug Edert’s shot keeps defenses honest. But, Kentucky has simply way too much firepower at every position. Oscar Tshiebwe is on an unprecedented rebounding tear and Tyty Washington is one of the best freshmen in the country.

Outcome: Kentucky

South

Arizona-Wright St. – 6’6 Tanner Holden is an intriguing wing and Grant Basile is a dynamic big with excellent passing ability. Arizona simply brings too much size and athleticism with Mathurin and Koloko. With the way Wright St. moves the ball, they might be able to give the Wildcats more of a game than they bargained for.

Outcome: Arizona

Seton Hall-TCU – While the lack of a true point guard for Seton Hall will hurt against the dynamic Mike Miles, Seton Hall has an extremely experienced team. Myles Cale has been playing well as of late and Jared Rhoden is a two way player with something to prove. Can Seton Hall exploit matchups inside and dominate the glass? I think this game is a toss up given how well TCU has played lately, but Seton Hall’s seniors have had a lot of time to prepare for this game.

Outcome: Seton Hall

Houston-UAB – Jordan Walker is one of the most underrated lead guards in America and Quan Jackson is extremely physical. If UAB is able to match Houston’s physicality or even come close, they should be able to escape in what would be a battle. The outcome will depend on their ability to rebound against the Cougars, which is a tall task for any team. However, can Houston make enough shots down the stretch with the loss of Marcus Sasser? I am not convinced. An underrated factor will be Trey Jemison’s ability to defend Fabian White on the perimeter.  

Outcome: UAB

Illinois-Chattanooga – Can Chattanooga matchup with Kofi Cockburn? Or can their guard play neutralize him and force him to guard on the perimeter? Malachi Smith is a dynamic player, but the Mocs do not have enough firepower to upset Illinois if Trent Frazier or Alfonzo Plummer are hitting shots.

Outcome: Illinois

Colorado St.-Michigan – Colorado St. is one of the scrappiest teams in the field. David Roddy will stretch the Michigan defense and open up the lane. No one for Colorado St. will be able to guard Hunter Dickinson, but the Rams have enough depth to outscore Michigan by pushing the tempo. This is a bad matchup for Colorado St. from a personnel standpoint, but they still should emerge from this game. Michigan point guard DeVante Jones is out with a concussion he sustained in practice.

Outcome: Colorado St.

Tennessee-Longwood – Justin Hill, Isaiah Wilkins, and DeShaun Wade are a solid guard trio, but Tennessee has one of the best emerging NBA prospects in lead guard Kennedy Chandler. Santi Vescovi has had a banner year and should be too much for the Lancers. Tennessee boasts superior size with John Fulkerson, Uros Plavsic, Olivier Nkamhoua and Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, which should prove to be too much.

Outcome: Tennessee

Ohio St.-Loyola Chicago – The Ramblers upset top ranked Illinois just one year ago. Can they complete a Big Ten sweep here? Ohio St. has lost four of their last five, with the final being a three point loss to Penn State. This is predominantly due to injuries. Given Zed Key’s bad ankle and Kyle Young’s concussion issues, Ohio State will certainly not be at full strength. Uguak should provide enough rim protection inside, and the Williamson/Norris backcourt should once again prove to be dangerous from three. EJ Liddell is a matchup nightmare, but Loyola Chicago’s stout defense should limit the Buckeye’s perimeter shooting.

Outcome: Loyola Chicago

Villanova-Delaware – In this revenge game for Dylan Painter, Villanova should have the edge. They are simply the more experienced squad coming off of a Big East Tournament victory. This Blue Hens team is led by Jameer Nelson Jr. Anyone with such a name should strike fear into the hearts of Villanova fans old enough to remember his dad’s dominant run with St. Joes. Tread cautiously.  

Outcome: Villanova

Midwest

Kansas-Texas Southern – At 6’9, John Walker III flashed his perimeter repertoire in the play in game. However intriguing his performance was, Kansas is going to beat TSU by a wide margin due to Texas Southern’s penchant for careless turnovers. Ochai Agbaji should have a big game.

Outcome: Kansas

San Diego St.-Creighton – San Diego St. is a disciplined defensive minded club with the athleticism to give Creighton fits on the perimeter. Nathan Mensah’s interior defense will be pivotal against Ryan Kalkbrenner, who has been dominant in recent weeks. Can Matt Bradley and co. hit enough shots? I believe that Creighton is coming together at the right time and is probably playing the best basketball of any 8-9 seed at the moment. Ryan Hawkins has experience winning with Northwest Missouri St. and I have no doubt that he will make winning plays down the stretch. This game should be close, but I will give Creighton the edge in a low scoring affair.

Outcome: Creighton

Iowa-Richmond – While many are overlooking the Spiders, Jacob Gilyard had an outstanding A10 tournament and his team should give Iowa a game. With that said, Keegan Murray is simply a matchup nightmare and the Hawkeyes have the defensive tenacity to slow down Richmond’s attack. Look for Iowa to win in a closer game than most are expecting.

Outcome: Iowa

Providence-South Dakota St. – This was the most difficult call of the entire bracket in my opinion – the ultimate contrast in styles. SD St. looks to push and shoots just under 45% from three as a team. Providence, on the other hand, is tenacious on defense, and should be able to contest the Jackrabbits from beyond the arc. SD St. does not have a foil for Nate Watson, who should dominate inside. When SD St. counters and doubles him down low, will AJ Reeves and company be able to knock down open threes? The combination of defensive pace and Providence’s willingness to push the tempo could tire out a run-and-gun Jackrabbits squad. If Providence allows Baylor Scheierman to get into a rhythm, they are in for a long night. SD St. has struggled against size and tempo previously, so Providence should have the ever-so-slight edge.

Outcome: Providence

LSU-Iowa St. – LSU fired Coach Will Wade prior to this game, which could be a blessing or a curse. Either the team is fired up about the loss of their coach, or they will come out completely lost and disjointed. Iowa State’s defense is tenacious and Izaiah Brockington is extremely aggressive attacking the basket. This game should be tightly contested.

Outcome: Iowa State

Wisconsin-Colgate – The Badgers should not take this Colgate team lightly. However, Johnny Davis and a tournament ready Brad Davison should prove too much for the Patriot’s top team. Keep an eye on both Nelly Cummings and Jack Ferguson for the Raiders. Tyler Wahl should have his way with Jeff Woodward inside, due to his superior mobility.

Outcome: Wisconsin

USC-Miami (Fl.) – USC is the bigger team and Isaiah Mobley’s defense is a game changer at the college level. Charlie Moore, Kameron McGusty, and Isaiah Wong are dynamic guards for the Hurricanes, but USC simply has superior length and size. Boogie Ellis will need to come to play.

Outcome: USC

Auburn-Jacksonville St. – Auburn is probably the most talented team in the field, with the best 2022 NBA draft prospect in Jabari Smith. The 6’10 wing can get his shot in a number of ways, and is remarkably efficient from beyond the arc. Big man Walker Kessler is extremely difficult to contain inside. Guard Darian Adams and co. will have their hands full, though I expect the game to be closer than most are expecting.

Outcome: Auburn

Image Courtesy of: The Coloradoan