Final Four & Championship Games
Final Four
Gonzaga vs. UCLA
Can UCLA continue their magical run and beat arguably the most dominant college team of the last decade? I do not think that they have the firepower from a matchup standpoint. While Riley and co. may look to try to limit Drew Timme in a similar style to how they played Hunter Dickinson, I do not see history repeating itself. Timme has proven to be too dominant and is finishing at a remarkably high rate. Timme dominated his matchup with the Mobleys and one of the best defensive bigs of the entire tournament (Evan) did little to halt his hot streak. If UCLA hopes to stand a chance, Juzang, Campbell and Jaquez will have to have an all time performance. Can they pull a 1985 style upset? With Suggs, Ayayi, Nembhard and Kispert defending along the perimeter, I do not think that UCLA's guards/perimeter attack can continue their hot streak. But, you never know with this NCAA tournament.
Baylor vs. Houston
While Baylor has been shooting a bit better and played very well offensively against Arkansas, they had difficulty getting stops and containing the dribble penetration of Arkansas' athletic guards. While I do believe that the Bears will make adjustments and play a much better defensive game against Houston, I believe that Houston's team presents a problem. Baylor has not been elite on the defensive glass, and they will need to step up their game against Houston, who is the best offensive rebounding team left in the field. They thrive off of second chance points, as was proven against Oregon State in the last round. Can Dejon Jarreau contain Davion Mitchell and will this be enough to thwart Baylor's offensive attack? I do not believe that Houston will ultimately have enough to stop Baylor on the defensive side of the floor. Matthew Mayer will serve as a huge mismatch and create driving lanes for their guards. He will need to have a big game for Baylor to come out on top and likely face the Zags in the dream matchup everyone has been waiting for since the beginning.
Championship Game Prediction
Gonzaga vs. Baylor
I am going with the result of my bracket, though I acknowledge that it is not the likely outcome here. In terms of how they have been playing, Gonzaga is clearly the favorites and they have obliterated the field so far. No one has had an answer inside for Drew Timme and Gonzaga's guards (Suggs in particular) have played tough defense on the perimeter. Despite the defense, their offense has been such a well oiled machine that they simply outscore everyone. I anticipate that this will be a closer matchup than most would expect (given how the Zags have played). Baylor has been patiently waiting to play this team all year (after a canceled matchup earlier in the season). I anticipate that the experience of Mitchell will simply prove to be too much and he will get in Suggs' head. While this really doesn't matter for the Zags, because they have two other elite guards who can handle the ball (Nembhard & Ayayi), I anticipate that these players will have off shooting games against Baylor. Kispert has not been as effective in this tournament and Mayer might be able to matchup with him. Timme presents a huge problem inside for Baylor, but they can try to double the ball out of his hands and force the rest of the Zags into contested shots if their rotations are crisp enough. Look for this to be an absolute classic game.
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